How could the Trump administration’s accelerated federal hiring, under new White House‑centric rules, affect civil‑service neutrality and policy‑implementation efficiency?
The Trump administration's implementation of Schedule Policy/Career—formerly known as Schedule F—represents the most significant restructuring of the federal civil service since the Pendleton Act of 1883 Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . As of March 9, 2026, the administration can begin converting approximately 50,000 career federal employees in "policy-influencing" positions into at-will workers who can be dismissed without cause, fundamentally altering both civil service neutrality protections and the operational dynamics of policy implementation across the executive branchCivil service advocates break down Schedule Policy/Careerourpublicservice .
President Trump signed Executive Order 14171 on January 20, 2025, reinstating and expanding the Schedule F executive order he had originally issued in October 2020 but which President Biden revokedRestoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce – The White Housewhitehouse . The Office of Personnel Management finalized the implementing rule in February 2026, which took effect on March 9, 2026OPM Finalizes Schedule Policy/Career Rule to Strengthen Accountabilityopm .
The executive order explicitly claims Article II constitutional authority, stating that "the federal service has matured to the point where the status-quo removal restrictions are unconstitutional overcorrections over fears of a return to the spoils system of the past"Final Schedule F regulations to describe civil service protections as ‘unconstitutional overcorrections’ - Government Executivegovexec . OPM's Noah Peters, a senior advisor to the OPM Director, argued during implementation briefings that "Congress, in 5 U.S.C. 7511, exempted from Chapter 75 removal procedures employees whose positions have been determined by the president or by OPM to be of a confidential, policy-determining or policy-influencing character"Final Schedule F regulations to describe civil service protections as ‘unconstitutional overcorrections’ - Government Executivegovexec .
The positions targeted for conversion include those characterized as "confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating," as well as those involving direct or indirect supervision of Schedule Policy/Career employees, or "duties that the Director otherwise indicates may be appropriate"Restoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce – The White Housewhitehouse . Administration officials have estimated approximately 50,000 positions—roughly 2% of the civilian workforce—would be affected, though the rule imposes no ceiling on future conversionsCivil service advocates break down Schedule Policy/Careerourpublicservice +1.
Employees converted to Schedule Policy/Career face a comprehensive erosion of workplace protections that had been established through more than a century of civil service reform Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . The specific protections eliminated include:
Removal protections under Chapter 75 of Title 5: Converted employees lose the procedural safeguards governing adverse actions, including requirements for advance notice, opportunity to respond, and written decisionsFinal Schedule F regulations to describe civil service protections as ‘unconstitutional overcorrections’ - Government Executivegovexec
Merit Systems Protection Board appeals: Employees can no longer petition the MSPB to challenge adverse actions, performance-based removals, or their reclassification itselfMSPB Will Not Hear Schedule Policy/Career Appealsthemindfulfederalemployee
Whistleblower access to Office of Special Counsel: Rather than filing prohibited personnel practice complaints with the independent OSC, converted employees must submit complaints directly to their own agency for internal investigation Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork +1
Recruitment, retention, and relocation incentives: Existing agreements can continue until termination, but no new agreements can be made for Schedule Policy/Career positionsTrump administration advances plan to strip job protections from career federal employeesyoutube
Student loan repayment benefits: Similarly grandfathered but unavailable for future employees Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork
Presidential Rank Awards eligibility: Converted employees lose access to one of the highest honors available to career federal employeesTrump administration advances plan to strip job protections from career federal employeesyoutube
The MSPB has explicitly stated it lacks jurisdiction to hear appeals related to Schedule Policy/Career conversions, noting that OPM's regulatory changes altered the structure governing these positionsMSPB Will Not Hear Schedule Policy/Career Appealsthemindfulfederalemployee . This shifts the legal battle entirely to federal courts, which operate on different timelines and procedural rules than MSPB appealsMSPB Will Not Hear Schedule Policy/Career Appealsthemindfulfederalemployee .
The administration has implemented parallel changes to federal hiring that prioritize political alignment. On May 29, 2025, following Executive Order 14170 ("Reforming the Federal Hiring Process and Restoring Merit to Government Service"), OPM announced its "Merit Hiring Plan" requiring a free-response essay question on non-political job listings"Loyalty hiring" is politicizing the civil service. It's illegal. - Protect Democracyprotectdemocracy :
"How would you help advance the President's Executive Orders and policy priorities in this role? Identify one or two relevant Executive Orders or policy initiatives that are significant to you, and explain how you would help implement them if hired.""Loyalty hiring" is politicizing the civil service. It's illegal. - Protect Democracyprotectdemocracy
Legal challenges argue this "loyalty question" violates the First Amendment by imposing unconstitutional conditions on employment, enabling viewpoint discrimination, compelling political speech, and chilling applications from those unwilling to profess allegiance to the administration's agenda"Loyalty hiring" is politicizing the civil service. It's illegal. - Protect Democracyprotectdemocracy .
Project 2025's personnel database further operationalizes political vetting. To be admitted to the "Presidential Personnel Database," recruits must respond to prompts about their ideologies, including "name one living public policy figure whom you greatly admire and why," and their social media accounts are scrutinizedProject 2025 - Wikipediawikipedia . As former administration officials have stated during recruitment briefings, candidates cannot be political appointees "if you don't believe in the president's vision"Project 2025 Private Training Video: The Federal Workforceyoutube .
The current reforms represent a philosophical return to principles that the federal government explicitly rejected following the 1881 assassination of President James Garfield by a disappointed office-seekerPendleton Act (1883) | National Archivesarchives . Prior to the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883, the federal government operated under a "spoils system" in which "government jobs came to be regarded as rewards for political connections, and those who got these jobs often had to make donations to the party as payback"An 1883 Act is protecting federal workers from DOGE's firing spree : NPRnpr .
As historian accounts document, "employees could be removed for any reason, including membership in a different political party than the President or publicly disclosing agency wrongdoing. The result of such a system was appointment and retention decisions based on political favoritism and not qualifications or performance"[PDF] What is Due Process in the Federal Civil Service ...mspb .
The Pendleton Act "provided that federal government jobs be awarded on the basis of merit and that government employees be selected through competitive exams. The act also made it unlawful to fire or demote for political reasons employees who were covered by the law"Pendleton Act (1883) | National Archivesarchives . While initially covering only 10% of federal positions, the law's scope expanded to cover most of the 2.9 million positions in the current federal governmentPendleton Act (1883) | National Archivesarchives .
Recent economic research published in the American Economic Review examined Post Office operations before and after Pendleton Act implementation, finding that "Civil Service reform increased productivity and reduced delivery errors, partly by lowering employee turnover"The Pendleton Act: Ending the Spoils System – by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefsbsu . Researchers also found that "local partisan newspapers declined in cities where post office jobs were filled through merit rather than patronage"The Pendleton Act: Ending the Spoils System – by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefsbsu .
Rigorous academic research using novel expert-based performance measures has demonstrated a robust negative correlation between vacancies in Senate-confirmed positions and federal agency performance[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes . For every 12 months a presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed (PAS) position remains vacant, agency performance is estimated to decrease by 0.14 to 0.17 on a standardized scale[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes .
If a position remains vacant for 24 months—approximately half a presidential term—the estimated performance decrease is 0.28 to 0.34, or roughly one-third of a standard deviation[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes . For positions vacant the entire Trump administration prior to the survey period, estimated performance was approximately 0.50 lower than comparable agencies, representing about two-thirds of a standard deviation decline[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes .
Critically, the research found the effect is non-linear: "The effect is largest early in the vacancy and becomes negligible the longer a position is vacant"[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes . This suggests agencies may adapt to operating without confirmed appointees, and "there is suggestive evidence that the effect of a vacancy may turn positive if a position is vacant long enough," potentially indicating that "positions with persistent vacancies perform better if leadership positions were converted to positions filled by permanent career professionals"[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes .
Research from the University of Chicago's Effective Government Initiative synthesizes findings showing that "in surveys of federal employees, rank and file employees and executives report fewer behaviors we associate with good management (e.g., clear goals, accountability, communication) and lower regard for agency leaders in agencies with more appointees"Political Appointees to the Federal Bureaucracy - Center for Effective Governmentuchicago . Furthermore, "greater perceptions of politicization also decrease federal executives' self-reported investments in expertise and increase their turnover intention"Political Appointees to the Federal Bureaucracy - Center for Effective Governmentuchicago .
Scholars evaluating comparable programs run by appointees versus career civil servants "found lower government management scores in the former, even after trying to account for the underlying differences between programs run by appointees vs. careerists. These effects are largest when the appointees are drawn from the presidential campaign"Political Appointees to the Federal Bureaucracy - Center for Effective Governmentuchicago .
On operational metrics: "Agencies with more political appointees have slower responses to information requests and more expensive contracts"Political Appointees to the Federal Bureaucracy - Center for Effective Governmentuchicago .
The Partnership for Public Service's January 2026 report examined states with at-will employment to assess likely federal outcomesSchedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec . Key findings include:
Higher turnover rates: Texas experiences 16% attrition in government versus the federal government's 5.9% turnover as of 2023. Missouri's attrition rate reached 29% in 2022Schedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
No productivity improvement: A 2014 survey of HR professionals in six at-will states found only 20% agreed the policy made employees more productiveSchedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
Removal of competent workers: More than 30% of HR officials in four at-will states in a 2010 survey reported the policy was utilized more to remove competent workers than poor performersSchedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
Significant cost implications: "In the private sector, the cost to replace an employee has been found to range from 50% to 400% of the employee's salary, depending on the role and level of experience and specialized skills"Schedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec . The report warns that "a significantly increased turnover rate for the tens of thousands of employees that would be covered under Schedule Policy/Career could cost the federal government hundreds of millions of dollars every year"Schedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
Brookings Institution research documented that regulatory delays correlate strongly with leadership vacancies across administrations. During the first Trump administration, "an astounding 97 percent of Trump's first year postponements corresponded to periods of leadership vacancies in the responsible agency". This compared to 88% under Obama and 67% under Bush, reflecting that "a delay does not only transpire for political reasons, but for pragmatic ones as well—when agencies are ill-equipped to fulfill their regulatory responsibilities".
The federal workforce has experienced unprecedented contraction since January 2025. According to OPM data, there has been a net decrease of 264,228 federal employees since January 20, 2025Workforce Changes - Federal Workforce Data - OPMopm . GAO documented that from January to June 2025 alone, "about 134,000 employees (or 6 percent of the workforce) separated during this period, while about 66,000 employees (including temporary employees) were hired"Federal Agency Workforce Changes: Update for January to June 2025 | U.S. GAOgao .
Additionally, "another roughly 144,000 employees were approved for a deferred resignation program and would end their federal employment by the end of 2025"Federal Agency Workforce Changes: Update for January to June 2025 | U.S. GAOgao . By agency:
The workforce reductions have produced quantifiable service delivery impacts:
Social Security Administration: SSA lost at least 7,000 employees in 2025 due to administration workforce reduction initiatives Without telework, GAO warns of further SSA staffing losses | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . From January to May 2025, "the average time citizens had to wait to get a call back regarding their social security or disability insurance claims rose to 180 minutes"How many people can the federal government lose before it crashes? | Brookingsbrookings . GAO found that "declines in customer service metrics at SSA were attributable to increased work volumes and steep learning curves for employees" Without telework, GAO warns of further SSA staffing losses | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork .
Internal Revenue Service: 6,700 IRS staffers were cut "just as tax season ramps up"Bigger federal workforce cuts expectedyoutube . An April 2025 internal email revealed the agency had "5,876 retirement applications" pending, with projections that including both deferred resignation programs would raise the number to 11,000—and with the processing team "operating at 50% capacity, meaning it would take over 5 years to complete the work"Exclusive: Internal email warned of retirement processing delays during workforce reductions; backloyoutube .
Department of Justice: DOJ's workforce declined by 8% from November 2024 to November 2025‘A subversion of the justice system’: DoJ shifts into Trump’s ‘political wing’ as criminal investigations accelerate | US justice system | The Guardiantheguardian . Over 6,400 employees (out of approximately 108,000) have left, with hundreds fired for having worked on investigations the president considered illegitimateHow DOJ and Criminal Justice Have Changed in Trump’s Second Term | The Marshall Projectthemarshallproject . The Civil Rights Division alone lost more than 76% of its career managers DOJ has lost over 100 career leaders since January, sparking concerns over its capacity and expertise | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork .
Statistical Agencies: Former Chief Statistician of the United States Nancy Potok reported that the National Center for Education Statistics, which produces critical data on educational achievement nationwide, was reduced to three employees after mass firings, with its head terminated The data system behind key U.S. decisions is losing staff, funding and trust | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . The Census Bureau was forced to cancel special censuses for rapidly growing localities "because they lost staff" The data system behind key U.S. decisions is losing staff, funding and trust | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . A multiyear effort to recruit data scientists and AI specialists was undone when "all those new hires got laid off when… people who were on probation, because they were new hires, all got laid off. Years of recruiting… and then boom, they were gone" The data system behind key U.S. decisions is losing staff, funding and trust | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork .
The nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service has documented that "attrition is an ongoing concern for our federal government. While some attrition is natural and can help infuse the federal workforce with new talent and ideas, turnover can also cause a loss of institutional knowledge and cost hiring managers both time and resources"Who is quitting and retiring: Important fiscal 2021 trends in the federal government • Partnership for Public Serviceourpublicservice . The attrition rate for career members of the Senior Executive Service was 9.2%, mostly comprised of retirementsWho is quitting and retiring: Important fiscal 2021 trends in the federal government • Partnership for Public Serviceourpublicservice .
As one federal workforce analyst noted: "In the military, active duty military, you have a service member that comes, stays two or three years, then they get reassigned or then they leave the military. But who stays? The federal worker stays. The federal worker stays there 5, 10, 15 years"It’s Starting: DoD Announces 5% to 20% Workforce Cutsyoutube . When civilian experts leave through deferred resignation, "they take decades of technical knowledge with them that a 22-year-old newly recruited service member simply does not have"It’s Starting: DoD Announces 5% to 20% Workforce Cutsyoutube .
A 2023 Federal Workforce Priorities Report projected that 31.4% of federal employees would be eligible for retirement within five yearsThe Quiet Crisis in Government Talent: When Institutional Memory ...govloop . The cost of replacing a valued employee "typically outweighs the cost of retaining their institutional knowledge, often 90% to 200% of the employee's annual salary, and warns that the loss of organizational knowledge can oftentimes be devastating"The Quiet Crisis in Government Talent: When Institutional Memory ...govloop .
Executive orders in early 2025 have decimated federal scientific advisory capacity. On April 15, 2025, the National Science Foundation eliminated 12 committees advising on biological sciences, geosciences, cyberinfrastructure, environmental research and education, and social, behavioral, and economic sciencesEliminating US science advisory committees will harm the public and open the door to special interests - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientiststhebulletin . The Interior Department eliminated six committees in 2025, including the committee for science quality and integrity, which was charged with "identifying effective mechanisms to provide oversight of science quality within the US Geological Survey labs"Eliminating US science advisory committees will harm the public and open the door to special interests - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientiststhebulletin .
On April 28, 2025, the administration dismissed all 400 experts working on the Sixth National Climate Assessment, which is mandated by the Global Change Research ActEliminating US science advisory committees will harm the public and open the door to special interests - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientiststhebulletin . As experts noted, "Without the assessment, local and regional governments will struggle to access climate projections tailored to their geography and economy, making it harder for them to plan for extreme weather that can destroy roads, bridges, and homes, damage agriculture, and put lives at risk"Eliminating US science advisory committees will harm the public and open the door to special interests - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientiststhebulletin .
Federal Advisory Committee recruitment already faced challenges due to ethics compliance requirements. GAO studies have documented that the FDA "has faced barriers in recruiting qualified FAC members without ethics conflicts" because "individuals with the expertise sought for FDA's FACs are the same experts sought by industry to conduct research"[PDF] Federal Ethics Rules and Their Impacts on Recruiting and Retaining ...ida . Federal and agency-specific financial disclosure requirements "could deter participation of scientific and technical talent in Federal service"[PDF] Federal Ethics Rules and Their Impacts on Recruiting and Retaining ...ida .
The loss of incentive programs under Schedule Policy/Career—including recruitment, retention, and relocation bonuses and student loan repayment—will further handicap agencies competing with private sector employers for specialized scientific talent Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork .
The shift from independent Office of Special Counsel oversight to internal agency investigation represents a fundamental weakening of government accountability infrastructure Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork +1.
As one analyst explained: "Schedule F destroys whistleblower protections. Currently, if a federal employee witnesses corruption, illegal activity, or outright wrongdoing, they can report it to the Office of Special Counsel, an independent agency that investigates. The whistleblower is protected from retaliation... Under schedule F, those protections vanish. Employees would report complaints internally to their supervisor, to their agency's general counsel, to people who work for the same president they're potentially reporting on"31 DAYS LEFT: Trump's Plan to Control the Entire Federal Government Just Became LEGALyoutube .
The 2017 VA Whistleblower and Accountability Act provides a cautionary precedent. After its passage, terminations at the VA rose by 60% during the remainder of 2017, with the law used "almost exclusively to fire 1,700 low level employees, such as housekeepers, nursing assistants, and food service workers" while being used only 4 times against mid-level and senior managers[PDF] Rescind the VA Whistleblower and Accountability Act, and Oppose ...nffe . The law "effectively quashed whistleblowers who now fear reprisal through the loss of due process"[PDF] Rescind the VA Whistleblower and Accountability Act, and Oppose ...nffe .
The VA Act lowered the burden of proof for misconduct from "preponderance of the evidence" to "substantial evidence," which "under existing case law can be essentially nothing (i.e., the evidence shows there is less than 1% chance you did what you were disciplined for, and it could still be upheld)"[PDF] Rescind the VA Whistleblower and Accountability Act, and Oppose ...nffe .
President Trump's dismissal of multiple Inspectors General without the statutorily required 30-day congressional notice further compounds accountability concernsGovernment Accountability Project Condemns Removal of Inspectors General by President Trump - Government Accountability Projectwhistleblower . As Government Accountability Project noted: "Inspectors General serve as indispensable guardians of accountability and transparency. Their independent oversight functions not only deter corruption but also empower whistleblowers to report misconduct without fear of retaliation"Government Accountability Project Condemns Removal of Inspectors General by President Trump - Government Accountability Projectwhistleblower .
The Department of Justice exemplifies heightened politicization concerns. Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a "zealous advocacy" memo declaring DOJ lawyers are "Trump's lawyers"‘A subversion of the justice system’: DoJ shifts into Trump’s ‘political wing’ as criminal investigations accelerate | US justice system | The Guardiantheguardian +1. On February 19, 2026, a large banner with Trump's picture was unfurled over the door of DOJ headquarters‘A subversion of the justice system’: DoJ shifts into Trump’s ‘political wing’ as criminal investigations accelerate | US justice system | The Guardiantheguardian .
Project 2025's blueprint recommended the administration "reexamine" policies limiting White House-DOJ contacts that were instituted post-Watergate to ensure "that laws are not arbitrarily changed or applied based on the political whims of the party in power"Project 2025’s Plan for Criminal Justice Under Trump | Brennan Center for Justicebrennancenter . The DOJ's independence "is not guaranteed by any explicit rule, but through norms and practices put in place after the Watergate scandal"Project 2025’s Plan for Criminal Justice Under Trump | Brennan Center for Justicebrennancenter .
The firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following a weak jobs report illustrates risks to data integrity‘The neutrality of the agency has been eliminated’: Stats-based feds decry BLS chief’s firing - Government Executivegovexec . President Trump and White House officials suggested without evidence that she had "rigged" the jobs report, though revisions to prior reports are routine across administrations‘The neutrality of the agency has been eliminated’: Stats-based feds decry BLS chief’s firing - Government Executivegovexec .
As one federal union leader stated: "Who will trust the data going forward, without concern that it is being skewed to favor an administration's agenda or political talking points? The neutrality of the agency has been eliminated, and public trust has been broken"‘The neutrality of the agency has been eliminated’: Stats-based feds decry BLS chief’s firing - Government Executivegovexec .
Multiple federal lawsuits seek to block Schedule Policy/Career implementationLitigation Tracker — Rise Up: Federal Workers Legal Defense Networkworkerslegaldefense :
Plaintiffs argue Schedule Policy/Career violates:
Congressional Intent: "For over 140 years, the law has said career federal employees get hired and fired based on merit, not politics. The phrase 'confidential, policymaking, policy-determining' in the statute was always meant to describe political appointees, schedule C, not career employees"3.6 A Major Union Coalition Filed an Updated Lawsuit Arguing Schedule Policy/Career is Illegalyoutube
Fifth Amendment Due Process: "You have a fifth amendment right to your federal employment. Once you've completed the probationary period and earned your civil service protections, those protections are a property interest under the fifth amendment. The government cannot just strip them away by moving you into a new category"3.6 A Major Union Coalition Filed an Updated Lawsuit Arguing Schedule Policy/Career is Illegalyoutube
Administrative Procedure Act: Plaintiffs argue the final rule is "arbitrary and capricious" because OPM "says the problem is too hard to fire bad performers. But the solution strips protections based on what kind of work you do, not how well you do it"3.6 A Major Union Coalition Filed an Updated Lawsuit Arguing Schedule Policy/Career is Illegalyoutube
The ACLU argues the executive order "threatens the First Amendment rights of federal employees. The order's true goal is to target workers based on their real or perceived disloyalty to the president and his political aims"ACLU-D.C. responds to Trump's Executive Order on Schedule ...acludc .
Comparative analysis from the UK Institute for Government warns that American moves toward politicized appointments risk outcomes documented elsewhere. In Canada, where the prime minister has high autonomy over senior bureaucrat appointments, the approach "has led to a wider trend of politicisation of the civil service, which has included asking officials to act in partisan ways, dismissing official evidence and pressuring and undermining government scientists"Australia and Canada highlight the dangers of politicising the civil ...instituteforgovernment .
In Australia, where department heads are appointed on fixed-term contracts without merit requirements, "the current crop of permanent secretaries has only been in post for an average of two years each"Australia and Canada highlight the dangers of politicising the civil ...instituteforgovernment . One former department head noted officials "received a message that 'you shouldn't take on roles that could be perceived as controversial, even when all you're doing is actually carrying out the lawful instructions of an elected government'"Australia and Canada highlight the dangers of politicising the civil ...instituteforgovernment .
Australia's independent review of its public service explicitly "rejects any move towards a partisan 'Washminster' model, whereby agency heads change when governments change and senior public servants have clear political allegiances"[PDF] Independent Review of the Australian Public Servicepmc . The review concluded that "retaining a Westminster foundation delivers a professional and permanent APS. It supports the APS to make necessary longer-term investments in its core and emerging capabilities, rebuilding its expertise, skills and institutional memory. It delivers an impartial and professional public service which underpins trust in the institution and, by extension, democracy"[PDF] Independent Review of the Australian Public Servicepmc .
The Victorian Ombudsman's investigation into public sector politicization similarly found that "the 'perception or occurrence of politicisation in the Victorian public sector puts a core concept of Westminster government at risk'"Alleged politicisation of the public sector: Investigation of a matter referred from the Legislative Council on 9 February 2022 – Part 2 | Victorian Ombudsmanombudsman .
The Partnership for Public Service's 2025 survey reveals shifting public attitudesThe State of Public Trust in Government 2025 • Partnership for Public Serviceourpublicservice :
However, support for a nonpartisan civil service has declined from 87% agreement in 2024 to 66% in 2025, "led by large decreases among Republicans and independents"The State of Public Trust in Government 2025 • Partnership for Public Serviceourpublicservice . In 2024, nearly 9 in 10 Republicans agreed a nonpartisan civil service was important for democracy; that figure decreased to 66% in 2025The State of Public Trust in Government 2025 • Partnership for Public Serviceourpublicservice .
Scientists and policy experts have documented chilling effects on professional judgment. One NOAA branch manager described the dilemma: "When it comes to policies, there could be a policy that came forward that says, 'Hey, forget about the sustainability and forget about the ecosystem effects. Only support industry and industrial production in fisheries.' Well, then branch manager says, 'My authorizing legislation says I need to do all three. Is this legal? And how do I have that conversation with my boss or my political appointee that's asking me to do this?'"The Schedule Policy/Career rule raises alarms about the independence of federal scienceyoutube
Under Schedule Policy/Career, "instead of having the conversation with my political appointee that says you're asking me to do this and favor industry, can we talk about the legality of it? I suddenly am put in a position of putting my job at risk"The Schedule Policy/Career rule raises alarms about the independence of federal scienceyoutube .
The administration argues Schedule Policy/Career will "help root out poor performers across government, while also holding career federal employees in 'policy-influencing' roles more accountable" Federal employees face looming finalization of Schedule Policy/Career | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork . OPM Director Scott Kupor stated the reclassification would bring "much-needed accountability to career policy-influencing positions in the Federal government"Trump administration issues rule that makes it easier to fire federal workers | Trump administration | The Guardiantheguardian .
However, the evidentiary record suggests these claims rest on weak foundations:
No documented performance problem: As the Federation of American Scientists observed, "the rule or any of the background information that's come out does not document that the poor performance issues in the federal government... are the preponderance of those... within the policy influencing or policymaking community"The Schedule Policy/Career rule raises alarms about the independence of federal scienceyoutube
State-level evidence contradicts efficiency claims: Academic surveys of state HR officials in jurisdictions with at-will employment "generally have not reported an improvement to efficiency or government services"Schedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
Turnover costs compound inefficiency: The 50% to 400% replacement cost per employee, multiplied across tens of thousands of positions experiencing elevated turnover, could generate "hundreds of millions of dollars" in annual costsSchedule F won’t fix government’s performance management problems, report finds - Government Executivegovexec
Institutional knowledge loss degrades implementation capacity: As documented across agencies from SSA to DOJ to statistical agencies, workforce reductions have already produced measurable service delivery backlogs, processing delays, and capability gaps Without telework, GAO warns of further SSA staffing losses | Federal News Networkfederalnewsnetwork +1
Historical evidence favors merit systems: Post Office performance improved and corruption declined after Pendleton Act implementationThe Pendleton Act: Ending the Spoils System – by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefsbsu
Academic research shows appointee-heavy agencies perform worse: Quantitative studies demonstrate robust negative correlations between appointee percentages and agency performance on multiple metrics[PDF] Measuring the Impact of Appointee Vacancies on U.S. Federal ...dannyhayes +1
The weight of available evidence indicates that the administration's accelerated hiring framework prioritizing political alignment over traditional merit criteria is likely to degrade rather than enhance policy implementation efficiency, while simultaneously undermining the civil service neutrality protections that have supported democratic governance since 1883.