How might Trump's public calls for regime change in Iran and Cuba reshape U.S. diplomatic strategy and affect geopolitical stability in the Middle East and Caribbean?
Trump's simultaneous pursuit of regime change in Iran and Cuba represents the most consequential reorientation of U.S. foreign policy since the Cold War's end, reviving 19th-century doctrines of hemispheric dominance while launching the largest Middle Eastern military operations in decadesWhat Is the Monroe Doctrine, and How Is Trump Reasserting It? | TIMEtime +1. The administration's December 2025 National Security Strategy formally enshrined both campaigns under a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America and a "Peace Through Strength" doctrine globally, fundamentally restructuring U.S. diplomatic relationships and triggering cascading instability across both regionsThe ‘Trump Corollary’ in the US security strategy brings a new focus on Latin America – but it is a disordered plan | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tankchathamhouse +1.
The Trump administration's approach to regime change operates within an explicitly articulated doctrinal framework that marks a decisive break from the post-World War II rules-based international order. The December 2025 National Security Strategy, a 33-page document signed by Trump, declares that "the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere"‘Donroe' Doctrine: Trump’s 200-year old plan for Latin Americayoutube +1.
The document establishes what it calls the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine—a deliberate echo of Theodore Roosevelt's 1904 corollary that asserted U.S. rights to intervene militarily throughout Latin AmericaThe Guardian view on the new Monroe doctrine: Trump’s forceful approach to the western hemisphere comes at a cost | Editorial | The Guardiantheguardian . The strategy explicitly states that the Western Hemisphere must be controlled by the United States "politically, economically, commercially, and militarily," and commits to denying "non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere"The ‘Trump Corollary’ in the US security strategy brings a new focus on Latin America – but it is a disordered plan | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tankchathamhouse .
Trump has enthusiastically personalized this doctrine, dubbing it the "Donroe Doctrine" during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago: "The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we've superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the 'Donroe Doctrine'"What Is the Monroe Doctrine, and How Is Trump Reasserting It? | TIMEtime +1. The State Department reinforced this message, posting on X that "This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened"What Is the Monroe Doctrine, and How Is Trump Reasserting It? | TIMEtime .
The National Security Strategy also introduces a broader "Peace Through Strength" doctrine that observers note has resulted in "more room for military adventurism," encompassing bombing campaigns against Yemen, Iran, Nigeria, Somalia, drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean, and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás MaduroMaduro abduction shows influence, limits of US Secretary of State Rubioaljazeera .
Trump's Iran policy has evolved from the "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign of his first term into direct military confrontation aimed explicitly at regime change. The trajectory began with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, conducted jointly with Israel over approximately 12 days, which Trump claimed had "totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear programAs US and Israel again battle Islamic Republic, the goal is regime change and the stakes could not be higher | The Times of Israeltimesofisrael +1.
However, intelligence assessments contradicted these claims. A Defense Intelligence Agency report estimated that the program had been delayed by less than six months, with much of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium moved before the strikesStrike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says - The New York Timesnytimes . Iran retained approximately 400 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium, and reconstruction efforts at sites including "Pickaxe Mountain" near Natanz showed "much more mining and drilling" since June 2025Iran rebuilding after U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities, report says - NPRnpr +1.
The February 2026 strikes represented a dramatic escalation. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury," targeting Iran's leadership, security forces, nuclear program, and missile sites with the explicit objective of inducing regime changeUS-Israel strikes on Iran: February/March 2026 - House of Commons Libraryparliament . The operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, confirmed by Iranian state television, which announced 40 days of mourningKhamenei’s final X post surfaces hours after Trump announces killing: What it meansindiatimes .
Trump's public statements on Iran regime change have grown increasingly explicit. In February 2025, he signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 2, which declared that U.S. policy is to ensure "Iran be denied a nuclear weapon" and that "Iran's network and campaign of regional aggression be neutralized"National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-2 – The White Housewhitehouse .
On February 13, 2026, when asked about regime change in Iran, Trump stated: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen. For 47 years, they've been talking and talking and talking"Trump says change in power in Iran would be 'best' after sending 2nd aircraft carrier to region | PBS Newspbs . In a June 2025 Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Regime change in Iran—'It's not politically correct to use the term, "Regime Change," but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!'"In Their Words: How Trump's and his administration's statements on Iran evolved and conflictedyahoo .
His address announcing the February 2026 strikes concluded with a direct appeal to the Iranian people: "Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations"Trump criticized regime change for years, now wants it in Iranyoutube +1.
The Iran campaign has been characterized by unprecedented U.S.-Israel coordination. According to Axios, the pivotal moment came on February 23, 2026, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump with intelligence that Khamenei and his top advisers would all meet at one location in Tehran the following SaturdayExclusive: Inside Trump, Netanyahu call on Iran that changed Middle Eastaxios .
Trump and Netanyahu met twice and spoke by phone 15 times in the two months leading to the warExclusive: Inside Trump, Netanyahu call on Iran that changed Middle Eastaxios . The two leaders had met in February 2025, when Netanyahu presented Trump with a slide deck showing climbing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and warned: "Look, Donald, this has to be tackled, because they're racing forward. You can't have a nuclear Iran on your watch"Trump's War With Irantime .
Ophir Falk, Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, described the relationship as "an epic tag team," stating that "the cooperation and coordination between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and the cooperation and coordination between the Israeli and American armed forces is unprecedented"PM advisor: Remove ayatollah threat by removing ayatollahsjpost .
Trump's Cuba policy, while sharing the ultimate objective of regime change, employs fundamentally different methods—economic strangulation rather than military action. The strategy centers on cutting off Cuba's oil supply following the capture of Venezuela's Maduro, who had been Cuba's primary oil supplier.
On January 29, 2026, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorizing tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to CubaFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba – The White Housewhitehouse . This effectively ended the estimated 27,000 to 35,000 barrel-per-day deliveries of Venezuelan oil that had been Cuba's economic lifelineHow far will Trump push Cuba? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tankchathamhouse .
Mexico, previously Cuba's remaining oil supplier, temporarily halted shipments by January 27, 2026, with President Claudia Sheinbaum characterizing it as "a sovereign decision"2026 Cuban crisis - Wikipediawikipedia . Russia reportedly sent oil aboard a "dark fleet" tanker, but the ship diverted course once near the island under surveillance by U.S. warshipsMike Hammer: Cuba dictatorship will end in 2026 | Miami Heraldmiamiherald .
Trump's public statements on Cuba employ different language than his Iran rhetoric—emphasizing economic collapse and negotiation rather than explicit military regime change. On February 27, 2026, Trump told reporters: "The Cuban government is talking with us, and they're in a big deal of trouble, as you know. They have no money. They have no anything right now, but they're talking with us. And maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba. We could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba"Trump suggests a ‘friendly takeover’ of Cuba amid US fuel blockade | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
In earlier statements, Trump suggested military intervention would be unnecessary: "I think it's just going to fall. I don't think we need any action. Looks like it's going down. It's going down for the count"11 Million Cubans Are Poised to Starve Without Venezuelan Oil. How Many Will We Allow to Die?jezebel . On January 11, 2026, Trump posted on social media: "I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE... NO MORE OIL OR MONEY"Cuba REGIME CHANGE by end of 2026? Trump wants it to 'cement his legacy', claims report - WIONwionews .
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of 2026, searching for government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the authoritarian leftist administrationU.S. actively seeking regime change in Cuba, reports sayyoutube +1.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents emigrated from Cuba before the Castro revolution, plays a pivotal role in shaping Cuba policy. Rubio has stated: "If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I'd be concerned—at least a little bit. When the president speaks, you should take him seriously"Which countries could be in Trump's sights after Venezuela?bbc .
Rubio's approach to Venezuela was directly aimed at undermining the economic support it provides to Cuba, with the end goal of toppling the island's 67-year-old Communist governmentMaduro abduction shows influence, limits of US Secretary of State Rubioaljazeera . He has reportedly held discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, about potential negotiationsRegime Change in Cuba Appeals to Trump but Carries Risks - The New York Timesnytimes .
However, after meeting with Caribbean leaders, Rubio signaled willingness to accept gradual change: "Cuba needs to change, but it doesn't have to change all at once. It doesn't have to change from one day to the next. Everyone is mature and realistic here"Regime Change in Cuba Appeals to Trump but Carries Risks - The New York Timesnytimes .
The regime change campaigns reflect a broader transformation of U.S. diplomatic strategy from multilateral engagement toward aggressive unilateralism. On January 7, 2026, Trump announced withdrawal from 66 international organizations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Partnership for Atlantic CooperationTrump 2.0 Enters 2026 in Full Force | Chicago Council on Global Affairsglobalaffairs .
Additional withdrawals included the World Health Organization, UNESCO, the UN Human Rights Council, and the Green Climate FundHow Trump’s Unilateral Foreign Policy Has Eroded American Power - Center for American Progressamericanprogress . The administration also shut down USAID and dramatically reduced funding for UN agenciesTrump 2.0 Enters 2026 in Full Force | Chicago Council on Global Affairsglobalaffairs .
The 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly rejects "the ill-fated concept of global domination" in favor of "global and regional balances of power" and drops references to international law or the rules-based international orderBreaking down Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy | Brookingsbrookings . Senator Chris Van Hollen observed: "We need a strong defense, but we also need diplomacy, a strong and organized State Department, and development. And the Trump Administration has essentially crossed out two of those in diplomacy and development"How Trump's Foreign Policy Gambits Are Reshaping the World - TIMEtime .
The administration has reconfigured alliance relationships as transactional arrangements. The National Security Strategy demands that European allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, accelerate contributions to American weapons programs, and align trade policy with U.S. preferences as conditions for continued security backingHow Trump's Foreign Policy Gambits Are Reshaping the World - TIMEtime .
Spain has faced particular punishment for resisting these demands. Trump stated: "Spain has been terrible... Spain has absolutely nothing that we need other than great people. They have great people, but they don't have great leadership... We were going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain"Trump Holds High-Stakes Talks with German Chancellor Merz Over Iran Conflict and Base Access | AC15youtube .
The administration has also pursued engagement with authoritarian leaders while pressuring democratic allies. Trump announced the "Board of Peace" at the World Economic Forum—charging a $1 billion membership fee—while surrounding himself with what analysts described as "a coterie of mostly authoritarian leaders"How Trump’s Unilateral Foreign Policy Has Eroded American Power - Center for American Progressamericanprogress .
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have adopted a cautious stance that stops short of condemning U.S. actions while emphasizing their non-participation. A joint statement stressed they "did not participate in these strikes" while condemning Iranian counterattacks and urging Tehran to seek a "negotiated solution"EU scrambles for unity as Iran crisis exposes transatlantic rift – POLITICOpolitico .
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the UK had "played no role" in the strikes while condemning Iran's "abhorrent" regime. He told Parliament on March 2 that he considered the attacks to be illegal, and refused to allow British bases to be used for offensive strikes, though he permitted their use for "defensive" operations targeting Iranian missile launchersThe E3 and the EU in response to the attack on Iran: reluctantly aligned with the US | OSW Centre for Eastern Studiesosw .
French President Emmanuel Macron called the strikes an "outbreak of war" that "carries serious consequences for international peace and security"Europe reacts to US and Israeli attack on Iran as military operation spills into wider region | Euronewseuronews . He stated that France had been "neither informed nor involved in the US-Israeli attacks against Iran" and called for intensified diplomatic de-escalationThe E3 and the EU in response to the attack on Iran: reluctantly aligned with the US | OSW Centre for Eastern Studiesosw .
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who met with Trump at the White House during the conflict, took a more accommodating approach, stating "this was not the time to lecture allies" and expressing support for "most of the objectives" of the U.S.-Israeli operationThe E3 and the EU in response to the attack on Iran: reluctantly aligned with the US | OSW Centre for Eastern Studiesosw +1.
The EU response revealed deep internal divisions. Four distinct camps emerged: Hungary and Slovakia firmly supporting Trump; Spain fundamentally rejecting the strikes; Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Slovenia advocating diplomacy without taking sides; and the remaining states, led by France and Germany, condemning Iran while refraining from criticizing the U.S. or IsraelIsrael and the US attack Iran: What is the EU's position in the new ...europeanrelations .
The EU's official position, issued by foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, called for "maximum restraint" and respect for international law while characterizing the situation as "perilous"EU nations call for 'maximum restraint', respect for international law in Iran conflict | Reutersreuters . The statement reflected economic concerns, warning that "the conflict must not lead to an escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond, with unpredictable consequences, also in the economic sphere. The disruption of critical waterways, like the Strait of Hormuz, must be avoided"EU nations call for 'maximum restraint', respect for international law in Iran conflict | Reutersreuters .
An EU diplomat summarized Europe's position starkly: Europeans are "just bystanders, nobody has leverage with Trump"EU nations call for 'maximum restraint', respect for international law in Iran conflict | Reutersreuters .
U.S. officials responded harshly to European hedging. Senator Lindsey Graham wrote on X that he was "disappointed" in the E3 joint statement, accusing Western Europe of having "gone pathetically soft"EU scrambles for unity as Iran crisis exposes transatlantic rift – POLITICOpolitico .
The 2025 National Security Strategy included a lengthy broadside against Europe, describing the continent as at risk of "civilizational erasure" and becoming "majority non-European"How Trump's Foreign Policy Gambits Are Reshaping the World - TIMEtime . This language alarmed European leaders and contributed to the sense that the transatlantic partnership "as it previously functioned, is eroding"Israel and the US attack Iran: What is the EU's position in the new ...europeanrelations .
Congressional response to Trump's Iran military action has been deeply divided along partisan lines, with constitutional concerns raised by legislators in both parties. Senator Tim Kaine, author of a war powers resolution, called the Iran strikes a "colossal mistake" and demanded the Senate "immediately return to session and vote on my War Powers Resolution"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated: "Donald Trump failed to seek Congressional authorization prior to striking Iran. Instead, the President's decision to abandon diplomacy and launch a massive military attack has left American troops vulnerable to Iran's retaliatory actions"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
Senator Mark Warner, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned the intelligence behind the attack, warning of repeating "mistakes of the past" like the Iraq war: "The American people have seen this playbook before—claims of urgency, misrepresented intelligence, and military action that pulls the United States into regime change and prolonged, costly nation-building"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
Republican Representative Thomas Massie described the strikes as "acts of war unauthorized by Congress" and stated: "I am opposed to this War. This is not America First"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera . Senator Rand Paul opposed the war based on "constitutional principles"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
However, the Senate rejected a war powers resolution that would have required congressional approval to continue military operations in IranSenate rejects War Powers Resolution on Trump Administration's Iran operationsyoutube . A similar House vote was expected to failIranian leaders seek revenge against Donald Trump after airstrikesthehill .
Common Cause issued a statement declaring that "President Trump has launched a large-scale military campaign against Iran and is openly calling for regime change. These are acts of war undertaken without congressional authorization"Trump's Iran War is Illegal, and Congress Must Stop Itcommoncause . The organization argued: "By acting alone, he has violated the Constitution's assignment of war powers to Congress, seized authority that does not belong to him, and manufactured the conditions for claims of expanded presidential authority at home"Trump's Iran War is Illegal, and Congress Must Stop Itcommoncause .
The U.S.-Iran conflict has produced immediate and severe impacts on global energy markets. Brent crude surged as much as 13% in early trading on March 2, 2026, briefly exceeding $82 per barrelMiddle East conflict hits shipping, oil prices, and other international trade news | World Economic Forumweforum . WTI crude jumped 6.44% to $79.47 per barrel in a single session, with heating oil rising nearly 8% and gasoline climbing more than 5%Global oil supply chains face historic stress: Crude prices and tanker rates now at all-time highs — here’s the key reason behind the oil price surgeindiatimes .
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that in a worst-case scenario with the Strait of Hormuz completely blocked for a month, oil prices would jump by as much as $15 per barrelMiddle East crisis pushes up oil prices – and could drive inflation rises too | Economics | The Guardiantheguardian . BloombergNEF projected that if Iranian oil exports were completely removed from the market, Brent could rise to an average of $91 per barrel by Q4 2026Oil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran Disruption | BloombergNEFbnef .
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil and 21% of LNG transit annually, has become the epicenter of supply chain disruptionGlobal oil supply chains face historic stress: Crude prices and tanker rates now at all-time highs — here’s the key reason behind the oil price surgeindiatimes . Iran declared the strait closed and warned it would attack ships attempting to passWhy the Strait of Hormuz Matters | Iran vs U.S Waryoutube .
At the time of the conflict, approximately 150 ships had dropped anchor in the waterway, including those carrying oil and natural gasMiddle East conflict hits shipping, oil prices, and other international trade news | World Economic Forumweforum . Container shipping giant Maersk suspended all vessel crossings through the strait "until further notice," warning of delays for services calling ports in the Persian GulfStrait of Hormuz crisis explained: What it means for global shipping - CNBCcnbc .
Shipping costs reached historic levels. The cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China exceeded $29 million—the highest tanker charter rate ever recorded—with freight prices doubling within two weeks to nearly $14.50 per barrel, representing approximately 20% of the current WTI crude priceGlobal oil supply chains face historic stress: Crude prices and tanker rates now at all-time highs — here’s the key reason behind the oil price surgeindiatimes .
Insurance premiums spiked as underwriters began canceling coverage for ships transiting the regionGeopolitical Tensions Fuel Oil Price Volatility in 2026ainvest .
Iran's retaliatory strikes extended across the Gulf Cooperation Council, dramatically expanding the conflict's geographic scope. Iranian missiles and projectiles struck Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan—none of which had launched attacks against Iran from their territoryExperts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil .
The UAE experienced direct impacts including strikes on Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest for international travel, as well as hotels and Jebel Ali free zoneExperts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil +1. At least one person was killed in Abu Dhabi due to falling missile debris, with several others injured in Dubai's Palm JumeirahExperts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil .
Saudi Aramco's oil refineries at Ras Tanura were attacked, along with the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, prompting Saudi Arabia to reaffirm "its full right to take all necessary measures to defend its security and vital interests, including the option of responding to any aggression"Why Gulf States Are Reluctant to Join the U.S. Despite Iran's Escalation - Middle East Newshaaretz .
Gulf analysts characterized Iran's targeting of non-combatant states as a "serious strategic miscalculation" that has severely damaged Iran's regional credibilityExperts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil . The airspace closures created "the biggest disruption to global travel since the COVID-19 pandemic"Iran’s targeting of airport, ports and hotels in reaction to US strikes has forced Gulf nations onto front lines of a war they want no part intheconversation .
Iran's regional proxy network has mobilized in response to U.S. strikes, though with notable constraints. Hezbollah, which had been under pressure from Lebanese officials not to enter the conflict, fired missiles across the border into Israel on March 3, 2026—the first claimed strike against Israel in more than a year. Hezbollah stated the strikes were "carried out in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei and for repeated Israeli aggressions"Blow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks - WTOP Newswtop .
In Iraq, the coalition of Iran-backed militias calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed several drone strikes targeting U.S. bases in Irbil. Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah threatened to "begin attacking US bases in response to their aggression"Iraqi armed group, Yemen’s Houthis threaten to target US bases as Iran-Israel confrontation widensaa . Two officials with Iran-backed militias told the Associated Press that a meeting occurred two months prior to coordinate response plans, with targets including U.S. forces in the Kurdish region and JordanBlow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks - WTOP Newswtop .
Yemen's Houthi rebels also joined the expanding conflict, firing rockets at vessels in the Red Sea and targeting IsraelBlow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks - WTOP Newswtop . The deputy head of the Houthi media authority warned that "the coming hours carry more surprises"Iraqi armed group, Yemen’s Houthis threaten to target US bases as Iran-Israel confrontation widensaa .
However, analysts noted that independent decisions by proxy groups to limit their involvement suggest "overall weakening of Iran's network." As one analyst observed: "The dominoes started to fall with the October 7 events. Just take note of everything that has changed since then in terms of the balance of power"Blow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks - WTOP Newswtop .
The killing of Khamenei triggered an unprecedented succession process. Under Iran's constitution, a three-member interim leadership council immediately assumed power, comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and senior conservative cleric Alireza ArafiHow succession works in Iran and who could be the country's next ...thv11 +1.
The 88-member Assembly of Experts, composed entirely of Shiite clerics, is constitutionally required to select a new supreme leader "at the earliest possible opportunity"How succession works in Iran and who could be the country's next ...thv11 . Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's 55-year-old son, has emerged as a leading candidate, reportedly with strong support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard CorpsInside Iran's succession: who could replace Ali Khamenei?iranintl +1. Reports indicate Mojtaba was elected as Iran's new supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts—the first father-to-son succession in the Islamic Republic's historyMojtaba Khamenei Becomes Iran’s Supreme Leader After Ali Khamenei Killed In Strikes |Iran-Israel Waryoutube .
The succession comes amid conflicting domestic responses. Pro-government demonstrations occurred in Tehran's Enqelab Square and other cities on February 28 and March 1Pro-Iranian protests during the 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran - Wikipediawikipedia . However, Iranian-American communities, particularly in California, held celebrations, with one attendee stating: "For 47 years, they were lying. But today, this is the moment"Iranian Americans in Roseville react to recent strikes, call for regime changekcra .
Internet access has been severely limited within Iran since the strikes began, constraining both journalism and potential protest organization[PDF] US-Israel strikes on Iran: February/March 2026 - UK Parliamentparliament .
The U.S. oil blockade has precipitated what the UN Secretary-General described as an "extremely concerning" humanitarian situation that "will worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil needs go unmet"From blackouts to food shortages: How US blockade is crippling life in Cuba | Explainer News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
Cuba's remaining fuel reserves were estimated at 15-20 days as of late January 2026Bishops warn that Cuba risks social chaos if urgent changes are not madeewtnnews . The crisis has produced:
The USDA's International Food Security Assessment estimated that before the blockade, 12.8% of Cuba's population (1.4 million people) did not meet the daily caloric threshold, with an alternate estimate suggesting 37.8% (4.2 million) were food insecureCuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports | Economic Research Serviceusda .
International airlines including Air Canada suspended service to Cuba, while Southwest Airlines required Havana-bound planes to carry enough fuel for departureCuba in crisis: How fuel shortage is impacting health, travel, life on the islandyoutube . The combination of these pressures has caused a massive exodus—Cuba's population has shrunk from approximately 11 million to 9 million, losing more than 2 million people in recent yearsCuba CRISIS: Historian says Cuban people “suffering tremendously”youtube +1.
Cuba's Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) remain the critical variable in determining whether U.S. pressure achieves regime change. The FAR functions not merely as a military institution but as "a political, economic, and administrative pillar of the state" that "mediates regime continuity, oversees strategic sectors of the economy, and would shape the parameters of any eventual transition"Cuba's Military: The Institution Washington Cannot Ignoreamericasquarterly .
The military's economic power is substantial. The Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA), the military's principal business conglomerate, is "widely estimated to control roughly 35% of Cuba's economy" with assets estimated at approximately $18 billion, including about $14.5 billion maintained in bank accounts within the group's own financial institutionsCuba's Military: The Institution Washington Cannot Ignoreamericasquarterly .
The U.S. operation to capture Maduro inflicted significant damage on Cuba's security establishment. Thirty-two members of Cuba's elite Avispas Negras (Black Wasps) were killed in the raid—a defeat the Cuban armed forces "had not experienced since firefights with U.S. forces during the U.S. invasion of Grenada" over two generations agoThe Geopolitics of Maduro's Capture: Cuba's Inflection Point - CSIScsis . The Cuban government was forced to publicly acknowledge its military presence in Venezuela after years of categorical denialCuba names 32 citizens killed in U.S. military attack in Venezuelayoutube .
Analysts assess this loss as "having a deeply demoralizing effect within the Cuban armed forces" and "demystifies the strength of Cuba's defense and intelligence systems"The Geopolitics of Maduro's Capture: Cuba's Inflection Point - CSIScsis .
Despite these setbacks, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained a defiant posture: "Should we be attacked, we would fight with the same ferocity bequeathed to us by several generations of brave Cuban fighters... There is no surrender or capitulation possible nor any kind of understanding based on coercion or intimidation"Cuba’s Fiery Warning to the U.S.: “No Surrender If Attacked!”youtube . He has stated that "Cuba does not have to make any political concessions, nor will that ever be on the negotiating table"Cuba vs U.S.: Cuba Rejects US Deal: 'No Concessions' Amid Threats | WIONyoutube .
The economic crisis has generated unprecedented internal dissent. Reporters on the ground in Havana witnessed "thousands of protesters in the central part of Havana who were out demanding change, demanding that the Communist government stand down"—the largest protests in the regime's historyLargest Protests In Decades Erupt In Cuba | MSNBCyoutube .
The protests were met with violent repression. One observer noted: "I've been reporting in Cuba for years and I've never seen protests of this scale and I've never seen violence on this scale." The government cut internet access while hundreds were jailedLargest Protests In Decades Erupt In Cuba | MSNBCyoutube .
The Cuban Observatory for Human Rights documented nearly 400 acts of repression by Cuban security officers in January 2026—a 50% to 100% increase from prior monthsPressure on Havana is mounting: What comes next for Cuba matters | George W. Bush Presidential Centerbushcenter . According to Prisoners Defenders, Cuba held nearly 700 political prisoners as of October, with 359 connected to July 2021 protests remaining imprisoned with sentences up to 22 yearsWorld Report 2026: Cuba | Human Rights Watchhrw .
The highest U.S. diplomat in Havana, Ambassador Mike Hammer, stated publicly: "We believe change is coming. It is coming in 2026. La dictadura se va a acabar—the dictatorship will end"Mike Hammer: Cuba dictatorship will end in 2026 | Miami Heraldmiamiherald .
Caribbean nations face a difficult balancing act between solidarity with Cuba and alignment with Washington. The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, attended by Secretary of State Rubio, revealed these tensions.
Jamaica's Prime Minister Andrew Holness articulated the regional dilemma: "Jamaica stands firmly for democracy, human rights, political accountability, and open market-based economies," while also noting that "a prolonged crisis in Cuba will not remain confined to Cuba. It will affect migration, security, and economic stability across the Caribbean basin"Holness Breaks Silence Calls Out Trump’s Cuba Policy at CARICOMyoutube +1.
CARICOM announced it would respond "in a significant way to help the humanitarian situation in Cuba" within a monthCaribbean countries pledge humanitarian support for Cuba amid rising tensions with US | Caribbean | The Guardiantheguardian . Canada announced $8 million in immediate humanitarian assistance through the World Food Programme and UNICEFCanada provides assistance to the people of Cuba - Canada.cacanada . Mexico sent two ships of humanitarian aid2026 Cuban crisis - Wikipediawikipedia .
However, CARICOM failed to issue a unified condemnation of U.S. military intervention in the region, including deadly strikes against suspected drug boats that killed at least 151 peopleCaribbean countries pledge humanitarian support for Cuba amid rising tensions with US | Caribbean | The Guardiantheguardian . Trinidad and Tobago's prime minister reportedly praised Trump's military actions, challenging calls to protect the Caribbean as a "zone of peace"Caribbean countries pledge humanitarian support for Cuba amid rising tensions with US | Caribbean | The Guardiantheguardian .
Cuba's traditional allies have provided limited but meaningful support. China delivered 60,000 tons of rice, with the first shipment arriving January 20China and Russia reaffirm commitment to Cuba - Final Call Newsfinalcall . Chinese President Xi Jinping approved $80 million in financial assistance, and China is financing 55 new solar electricity projects across Cuba in 2025, with plans for 2,000 MW of capacity—nearly two-thirds of present-day demand—by 2028China is quietly supplanting Russia as Cuba's main benefactor | Reutersreuters .
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that China "firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding national sovereignty and security and opposes unwarranted interference by external forces"China Backs Cuba Against 'External Interference' as Foreign Minister Visits Beijingchinaglobalsouth .
Russian President Putin affirmed that Russia "will continue to provide assistance to our Cuban friends, standing in solidarity with their determination to defend their sovereignty and independence"China and Russia reaffirm commitment to Cuba - Final Call Newsfinalcall . Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on the United States to refrain from imposing a naval blockade on Cuba.
However, neither Russia nor China has directly confronted the Trump administration on Cuba. The Russian oil tanker that approached Cuba diverted course under U.S. naval surveillanceMike Hammer: Cuba dictatorship will end in 2026 | Miami Heraldmiamiherald . Russia's previous $1 billion investment pledge has produced limited results—a steel mill expected to produce 62,000 metric tons annually produced only 4,200 metric tons in 2024China is quietly supplanting Russia as Cuba's main benefactor | Reutersreuters .
The administration has deployed the largest U.S. military presence in the Caribbean in generations. The buildup includes approximately 15,000 service members, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group (the Navy's largest and most advanced), four squadrons of F-18 fighter jets, F-35 stealth fighters, MQ-9 Reaper drones armed with Hellfire missiles, and multiple guided-missile destroyersWe've tracked the US military build-up in the Caribbean. Here's what it could dotheconversation +2.
The Navy has reopened Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, which had been shuttered since 2004Here’s what the US military has positioned in the Caribbean as Trump pressures Venezuela | CNNcnn . Approximately a quarter of the U.S. Navy's deployed warships are currently in the regionU.S. continues to beef up military presence in Caribbean with eyes on Venezuelayoutube .
This force projection has been accompanied by deadly military strikes. Since September 2025, U.S. strikes have killed at least 80 people in 20 attacks on small boats accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and eastern PacificUS aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean in major buildup near Venezuela - POLITICOpolitico . The total death toll from drug boat strikes reached at least 151 peopleCaribbean countries pledge humanitarian support for Cuba amid rising tensions with US | Caribbean | The Guardiantheguardian .
The stated rationale for military action against Iran—preventing nuclear weapons acquisition—remains contested by intelligence assessments. Following the June 2025 strikes, the Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that Iran's program had been delayed by less than six months, not the years the administration claimedStrike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says - The New York Timesnytimes .
Key findings include:
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff stated in February 2026 that Iran was "probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material"—directly contradicting administration claims that the program had been "obliterated"US re-asserts 2025 strikes ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear programme | Politics News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
The Iran and Cuba campaigns invoke historical parallels with previous U.S. regime change operations that produced mixed-to-negative outcomes.
In Iraq, the 2003 invasion removed Saddam Hussein but produced neither peace nor stability. State institutions remained weak, Iran-supported Shiite militias clashed with Sunni units, and the power vacuum enabled ISIS to riseUS-led regime changes yield mixed results - DWdw +1. The post-invasion chaos "soured popular optimism very fast and encouraged troublemakers"Libya May Not Be Iraq, But There Sure Are Similaritiestheatlantic .
In Libya, the 2011 NATO intervention removed Moammar Gadhafi but left the country "politically divided and marked by massive instability" nearly 15 years later, with eastern, western, and southern regions controlled by competing factionsUS-led regime changes yield mixed results - DWdw +1.
Senator Mark Warner explicitly invoked these precedents: "The American people have seen this playbook before—claims of urgency, misrepresented intelligence, and military action that pulls the United States into regime change and prolonged, costly nation-building"US strikes on Iran lead to renewed demands for war powers legislation | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera .
Trump's regime change campaigns have produced a fundamental restructuring of U.S. diplomatic strategy with profound implications for regional and global stability.
The administration has abandoned the rules-based international order framework that guided post-World War II U.S. foreign policy. The 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly rejects "international law" and the concept of "global domination" in favor of "spheres of influence" politicsBreaking down Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy | Brookingsbrookings . One analyst characterized the approach: "I do feel that we are entering a new era of spheres of influence of great powers doing what they want, imposing their will on smaller countries"‘Donroe' Doctrine: Trump’s 200-year old plan for Latin Americayoutube .
The withdrawal from 66 international organizations and conditional alliance relationships have left the United States "more isolated and less able to advance its economic and security interests in the long term"How Trump’s Unilateral Foreign Policy Has Eroded American Power - Center for American Progressamericanprogress . European diplomats acknowledge they are "just bystanders" with no leverage over U.S. policyEU nations call for 'maximum restraint', respect for international law in Iran conflict | Reutersreuters .
The Iran campaign has produced measurable destabilization across the region:
The conflict has forced Gulf states "much closer to the US and Israeli position than they want to be" while "undoing" years of investment in building stable relations with TehranExperts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil .
The Cuba strategy has created:
The stability calculus depends heavily on whether Cuba's military-economic complex fractures or consolidates. Analysts note that ideological hardliners in Cuba "need to see a credible threat for them to negotiate" but "are betting on Trump's political burnout in the midterms"Mike Hammer: Cuba dictatorship will end in 2026 | Miami Heraldmiamiherald . U.S. officials counter that "the economic consequences will be too dire" for Cuba to sustain delay tacticsMike Hammer: Cuba dictatorship will end in 2026 | Miami Heraldmiamiherald .
The regime change strategy contains fundamental contradictions that may undermine its objectives:
Economic costs: If oil prices remain at $90-100 per barrel, developed market inflation could rise 0.8% higher than expected, potentially forcing central banks to raise interest rates and constraining economic growthMiddle East crisis pushes up oil prices – and could drive inflation rises too | Economics | The Guardiantheguardian —outcomes Trump explicitly seeks to avoid.
Alliance erosion: The conditional alliance framework and threats against NATO members weaken the coalition infrastructure that provides international legitimacy and burden-sharing for military operations.
Nuclear proliferation: The attack on Iran after it engaged in negotiations may reinforce the lesson that only nuclear weapons provide security against U.S. pressure—the opposite of non-proliferation objectives.
Humanitarian consequences: The strategy of economic strangulation in Cuba produces suffering that generates international condemnation while potentially strengthening regime narratives of external persecution.
Cuban economist Ricardo Torres summarized the underlying dynamic: "Whether the change in Cuba is something very sudden or a negotiated solution, in the end, it's regime change that Trump wants"Why Trump means the Cuban Revolution faces its biggest threat yetbbc . What remains uncertain is whether U.S. pressure will produce the internal fracturing that leads to transition—or the consolidation and external support that enables regime survival, as has occurred through six decades of embargo.