How might the divergent world‑order visions presented by progressive and conservative U.S. leaders at the Munich Security Conference reshape transatlantic policy coordination and the future authority of multilateral institutions?
The 2026 Munich Security Conference has crystallized a fundamental rupture in how the United States projects competing visions of global order, with immediate consequences for transatlantic coordination mechanisms and the legitimacy of post-World War II multilateral institutions. The conference revealed not merely policy disagreements but incompatible philosophies about the nature of international cooperation itself—a divergence that European allies are now actively institutionalizing into alternative security architectures.
The Trump administration's representatives articulated a vision that reframes alliances as economic exchanges rather than values-based partnerships. Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized the current moment as "a defining moment" where "the old world is gone" and "we live in a new era in geopolitics"Rubio Strikes Warmer Tone As Trump's Upheaval Of Atlantic Ties Looms Over Munich Summithuffpost +1. This framing positions historical alliance commitments as anachronistic constraints rather than strategic assets.
UN Ambassador Michael Waltz's appearance with a "MAKE THE UN GREAT AGAIN" baseball cap symbolized the administration's approach to multilateral reform through reductionGerman Leader Criticizes Trump at Munich Security Conference: Live Updates - The New York Timesnytimes . The substantive policy behind this symbolism is significant: the UN has agreed to its first budget cut in history at 15%, with nearly 3,000 headquarters bureaucrats to be eliminated, an 18% overall personnel reduction, and a 25% peacekeeping cutBreaking Point: The International Order Between Reform and Destruction | Panel Discussionyoutube . Waltz articulated the underlying philosophy by stating that when he explains to constituents "in Indiana and Georgia and North Florida that I represented, and it is their money paying more than 180 countries combined into the UN system, I have to look at them honestly and say it's being well spent, and it's not"Live - Munich Security Conference 2026: Global leaders gather as transatlantic ties dominate talks | Euronewseuronews .
NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker rejected the Munich Security Report's characterization of US policy as destructive, insisting "I don't see a world under destruction" and that it was "completely wrong" to view the US as the "elephant in the room"'Under destruction'? US tensions with NATO allies to take center stage at Munich conference - Breaking Defensebreakingdefense . His core message centered on burden redistribution: "All President Trump is trying to do is instead of the United States taxpayers…bearing the burden of the security of Europe, we have tried to balance that out. …The burden is shifted to our European allies"'Under destruction'? US tensions with NATO allies to take center stage at Munich conference - Breaking Defensebreakingdefense . Whitaker has explicitly stated that the administration's objective is for Europeans "to take over the conventional defense of the European continent," something he argues "all the way back to Nixon, US presidents have talked about…and nobody's been able to accomplish it. Now, President Trump has accomplished it"A Conversation with US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker | Middle East & Africa Summit 2025youtube .
Perhaps most consequentially, Whitaker startled European officials at an earlier gathering by remarking that he "looked forward to the day when Germany would tell the United States, 'We're ready to take over the supreme allied commander position'"Trump's NATO Dilemma | Foreign Affairsforeignaffairs —a statement that challenges one of NATO's foundational arrangements.
On trade institutions, the administration has adopted an even more confrontational posture. The US Trade Representative characterized the WTO-centered system as "untenable and unsustainable," arguing that "the United States has paid for the system with the loss of industrial jobs and economic security, other countries have been unable to make needed reforms, and the biggest winner has been China"Trump’s Trade Representative: Why We Remade the Global Order | United States Trade Representativeustr . The USTR explicitly framed current policy as "the Trump Round," comparing it to previous multilateral trade negotiations but noting that "by imposing tariffs to rebalance the trade deficit and negotiating significant reforms that form the basis of a new international system, the United States has shown bold leadership"Trump’s Trade Representative: Why We Remade the Global Order | United States Trade Representativeustr .
Progressive American voices at Munich presented a fundamentally different conception of security and international engagement. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, speaking on panels about populism and US foreign policy shifts, brought what Matt Duss (former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders) characterized as "a perspective that is not often represented at one of the big U.S.-European security conferences"AOC to offer a 'working class' perspective on U.S. foreign policy at Munich summitnbcnews . Her foreign policy vision, Duss explained, "is intertwined with her domestic politics" and centers on principles "she's been talking about since the first days she came to Congress": "She believes in diplomacy as a tool of first resort. She's supported reining in the executive branch when it comes to war. She believes the U.S. has an important role to play around the world, but military intervention is not the way to do that"AOC to offer a 'working class' perspective on U.S. foreign policy at Munich summitnbcnews .
Ocasio-Cortez told NBC News that her presence at Munich was essential because "It's very important that they see the full spectrum of representation, leadership and thought of the United States"AOC to offer a 'working class' perspective on U.S. foreign policy at Munich summitnbcnews . This framing explicitly positioned progressive Democrats as offering a competing vision of American engagement rather than merely critiquing administration policy.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, co-leading the bipartisan Senate delegation with Senator Lindsey Graham, offered a sharp contrast to administration positions. In announcing the trip, Whitehouse stated: "Trump's submissiveness to Vladimir Putin's murderous regime and his self-enrichment-first foreign policy has degraded America's standing in the world. We look to find common ground in Munich with colleagues and allies, and demonstrate that Congress is invested in combating the global climate crisis, beating back creeping authoritarianism, and supporting democratic allies across the world, especially those fighting for freedom in Ukraine"Whitehouse and Graham Lead Bipartisan Delegation to Munich ...senate . Whitehouse participated in a town hall specifically addressing "national security threats caused by climate change"Whitehouse and Graham Lead Bipartisan Delegation to Munich ...senate +1.
Governor Gavin Newsom articulated what amounts to a sub-national foreign policy, telling the conference that "Donald Trump is temporary. He'll be gone in three years"Newsom to world leaders: 'Donald Trump is temporary' - POLITICOpolitico . His message to world leaders was that California remains "a trusted, reliable partner on climate action, green energy, and innovation" and that "by strengthening our partnerships and alliances, California is proving that we will always be a trusted ally"Gavin Newsom arrives in Germany ahead of Munich Security Conferencenypost . Newsom formalized a new partnership between California and Ukraine and met with German Chancellor Friedrich MerzNewsom, AOC seek to boost profiles, reassure allies at Munich Security Conference - ABC Newsabcnews .
Progressive foreign policy scholars have systematically articulated this alternative framework. As one analysis notes, progressives "hold a different vision of the 'security' that grand strategy is supposed to advance: 'Security' does not refer to power position or national survival directly; it relates to greater peace, participatory democracy, and equality"To Build the World, Build the Strategy: Toward a Progressive US Foreign Policy • Stimson Centerstimson . This vision explicitly criticizes "multilateral institutions for a system of global governance that underrepresents the voices of the Global South"To Build the World, Build the Strategy: Toward a Progressive US Foreign Policy • Stimson Centerstimson while advocating reform rather than withdrawal.
Progressive members of Congress have also introduced concrete legislative alternatives, including a resolution to replace the Monroe Doctrine with a "New Good Neighbor" policy based on "mutual respect, cooperation, and shared prosperity"Progressive Democrats seek to 'annul' Trump Doctrine - The Hillthehill . Co-sponsors include Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Greg Casar, and Rashida TlaibProgressive Democrats seek to 'annul' Trump Doctrine - The Hillthehill .
The official Munich Security Report provided the analytical framework through which these competing visions were received. Titled "Under Destruction," the report characterized President Trump as "the most powerful of those who take the axe to existing rules and institutions"Rubio Heads To Munich Conference, Bratislava, And Budapest As Allies Look For Reassuranceglobalsecurity +1. The report warned that "the US administration's renunciation of core elements of the existing international order is impacting different regions of the world and disrupting various policy domains"[PDF] Under Destruction – Munich Security Report 2026securityconference .
The report identified specific concerns: "At a time when Russia is seemingly regaining tactical initiative along parts of the front with Ukraine and is intensifying its hybrid warfare campaign across Europe, Washington's gradual retreat, wavering support for Ukraine, and threatening rhetoric on Greenland are heightening Europe's sense of insecurity"[PDF] Under Destruction – Munich Security Report 2026securityconference . It noted that "the US has been sending mixed signals regarding the speed and scale of its retrenchment, oscillating between reassurance, conditionality, and coercion"[PDF] Under Destruction – Munich Security Report 2026securityconference .
However, the report also credited Trump's "destructive but creative style with breakthroughs on NATO defense spending and the Israel Hamas ceasefire"Munich Security Report warns of 'wrecking-ball politics' led by Trumpyoutube , while questioning "whether his policies will ultimately benefit the many"Munich Security Report warns of 'wrecking-ball politics' led by Trumpyoutube . Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger summarized the stakes: "For generations, US allies were not just able to rely on American power but on a broadly shared understanding of the principles underpinning the international order. Today, this appears far less certain, raising difficult questions about the future shape of transatlantic and international co-operation"Rubio warns Europe of new era in geopolitics before big Munich ...yahoo .
The divergent American visions have catalyzed unprecedented European institutional responses. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered what may be the most consequential European strategic reorientation since the Cold War, declaring that "the leadership claim of the U.S. is being challenged, perhaps already lost" and that "the international order based on rights and rules…no longer exists in the way it once did"Germany’s Merz blasts ‘lost’ US leadership and says global order ‘no longer exists’ – POLITICOpolitico .
Most dramatically, Merz confirmed: "I spoke with Emmanuel Macron about a European nuclear deterrence"Germany’s Merz blasts ‘lost’ US leadership and says global order ‘no longer exists’ – POLITICOpolitico —a statement representing Germany's first serious consideration of nuclear sharing arrangements outside the US umbrella. This follows from Merz's assessment that "a deep divide has opened between Europe and the United States"Germany’s Merz blasts ‘lost’ US leadership and says global order ‘no longer exists’ – POLITICOpolitico .
Merz pledged to make "the German armed forces the strongest conventional army in Europe as soon as possible"MSC: Germany's Merz says old world order 'no longer exists'dw and announced that a German Bundeswehr brigade is now stationed in Lithuania—"the first time that a German military unit has been based overseas since the Second World War"German chancellor's call to repair transatlantic trust at Munich • FRANCE 24 Englishyoutube . Yet Merz also maintained: "In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone…being a part of NATO is not only Europe's competitive advantage, it's also the United States competitive advantage. So let's repair and rewire transatlantic trust together"German chancellor's call to repair transatlantic trust at Munich • FRANCE 24 Englishyoutube .
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for Europe to "prepare for independence from the US"Rubio warns Europe of new era in geopolitics before Munich security conferencebbc and warned that "Europe should brace for more moments of US hostility"Munich Security Conference to open amid frayed transatlantic tiesglobalsecurity . He stated: "When there's a clear act of aggression, I think what we should do isn't bow down or try to reach a settlement. I think we've tried that strategy for months. It's not working"Munich Security Conference to open amid frayed transatlantic tiesglobalsecurity .
The European response has materialized in significant institutional innovations. The EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, adopted May 2025, provides up to €150 billion in loans for defense procurementSAFE | Security Action for Europe - Defence Industry and Spaceeuropa . Critically, SAFE was "designed from the beginning to exclude the United States"—requiring that "at least 65% of the components in any weapon system purchased must come from within the European Union, Ukraine, or the European Economic Area"Europe's $860B Defense Plan Has ONE BIG Problem for America — 4 Allies Just Appliedyoutube .
Demand has been overwhelming: by November 2025, 19 EU member states submitted requests totaling €127 billion, with Poland alone requesting €43.7 billionEurope's $860B Defense Plan Has ONE BIG Problem for America — 4 Allies Just Appliedyoutube . European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that "some countries were already calling for a second SAFE instrument"Europe's $860B Defense Plan Has ONE BIG Problem for America — 4 Allies Just Appliedyoutube . Germany's 2025-2026 procurement plan allocates $83 billion annually for defense, with only 8% going to American suppliers—"a dramatic reversal from recent years when Germany was one of America's biggest defense customers"Europe's $860B Defense Plan Has ONE BIG Problem for America — 4 Allies Just Appliedyoutube .
SAFE is the first pillar of the European Commission's "ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030," which "aims to unlock over €800 billion in defence spending across the EU"SAFE | Security Action for Europe - Defence Industry and Spaceeuropa . UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signaled that London "intends to work with European and Western allies to identify 'new instruments' to reduce the financial burden of rearmament, defence-industry production and military equipment supplies"Defence in an age of disruption: the Munich Security ...euperspectives .
The administration's pressure campaign has achieved quantifiable results. At the June 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, "all except for Spain agreed to spend 3.5 percent on regular defense and 1.5 percent on security-related measures by 2035"Europe: Detachment Issues - Munich Security Conferencesecurityconference . Between 2021 and 2025, European NATO members increased defense budgets by approximately 41%Europe: Detachment Issues - Munich Security Conferencesecurityconference . According to NATO estimates, "every country in the alliance achieved at least 2% last year"How much are Nato members spending on defence? - BBCbbc .
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized European progress: "Germany doubling its defense spending 2021 compared to 2029. They will go to over 150 billion. A clear example of Europe stepping up"LIVE: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks at Munich Security Conferenceyoutube . The Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism emerged as the Trump administration's preferred model: "European nations and Canada finance the purchase of US-made weapon systems for Ukraine and, in return, receive priority replacements from the US"Europe: Detachment Issues - Munich Security Conferencesecurityconference .
However, uncertainty persists. Between 2022 and 2024, "US systems accounted for roughly 51 percent of equipment spending by European NATO members—up from about 28 percent between 2019 and 2021"Europe: Detachment Issues - Munich Security Conferencesecurityconference . This reflects "attempts to lock in continued US security commitments"Europe: Detachment Issues - Munich Security Conferencesecurityconference even as Europe pursues strategic autonomy.
The WTO faces particular strain from divergent American approaches. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the Munich conference: "We may not like the action (U.S. tariffs), but we must take the signal that we need to reform many of the things with the world trading system. The system is resilient, but it's not robust, so we need to make it robust by doing the necessary reforms"WTO Chief Calls for Reform of Global Trading Systemusnews .
The US has identified six areas for WTO reform: "Transparency, plurilaterals, special and differential treatment, MFN principle, role of the secretariat, essential security exceptions"WTO Matters: WTO Reform - Part 1youtube . The administration argues that "what the US is now really demanding or suggesting is that the most favoured nation principle, the non-discriminatory principle, should not apply"US Peddles WTO "Reform", Goal Is To Restructure To Suits Its Interests || The Gistyoutube . Critics warn this "could be an attempt to give a legal sanctity to these otherwise illegal actions of President Trump which otherwise are in complete breach of a large number of WTO provisions"US Peddles WTO "Reform", Goal Is To Restructure To Suits Its Interests || The Gistyoutube .
The broader implications concern developing nations: "The United States now says that there has to be the same rule for all countries. Developing countries shall get no special and differential treatment"US Peddles WTO "Reform", Goal Is To Restructure To Suits Its Interests || The Gistyoutube . As one analyst observed: "Walking away from the WTO has costs. We've learned painfully in the past, like with the League of Nations"No, Don’t Abolish the WTO. Reform it. | The Red Pen on Senator Josh Hawley's NYT Op-Ed | GZERO Mediayoutube .
The current US posture toward multilateral institutions follows recognizable historical patterns with documented consequences. The United States has now withdrawn from UNESCO three times, "including a lengthy absence from the organization between 1984 and 2003"Here We Go Again: The U.S. Withdrawal from UNESCO - IGCCucigcc . UNESCO's Director-General responded to the latest withdrawal by expressing "profound regret," noting that "universality is critical to UNESCO mission to strengthen international peace and security"Withdrawal by the United States of America from UNESCO: DG Statement (full version)youtube .
The Trump administration has already withdrawn from the UN Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization, and "has launched a wide-ranging review of all international organizations—a move anticipated in Project 2025—that is due to drop in August"Here We Go Again: The U.S. Withdrawal from UNESCO - IGCCucigcc . Analysts warn: "Leaving UNESCO may seem like a costless step. But if multiplied across other institutions—including those that the United States itself had a hand in creating—we risk loss of leadership, isolation, and a global commons governed increasingly by others"Here We Go Again: The U.S. Withdrawal from UNESCO - IGCCucigcc .
The League of Nations precedent looms over current debates. As one analysis noted: "Although it aimed to be a universal organization, political realities meant that not all countries were on board. The United States, despite President Woodrow Wilson's strong support for the League, never joined. The US Senate rejected the treaty twice, which significantly weakened the League's influence right from the start"How Did The Treaty Of Versailles Impact The League Of Nations? - International Policy Zoneyoutube . The League's "inability to prevent World War II" stemmed in part from this foundational weaknessHow Did The Treaty Of Versailles Impact The League Of Nations? - International Policy Zoneyoutube .
Ukraine negotiations have emerged as the most consequential arena where divergent US visions directly shape transatlantic coordination. President Zelenskyy arrived in Munich emphasizing "the need for more of our joint production, more of our resilience, more coordination and effectiveness of our shared security architecture in Europe"Zelenskyy arrives in Germany for Munich Security Conferenceaa . He framed the stakes as ensuring "no one in Europe is afraid of being left without protection"Zelenskyy arrives in Germany for Munich Security Conferenceaa .
The trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia peace talks scheduled for Geneva on February 17-18 reveal internal tensions. Moscow's appointment of Vladimir Medinsky—described as "a fierce supporter of Russia's full-scale invasion" who has characterized the war as "a continuation of the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany"—signals "a potential hardening of Moscow's negotiating position"Live - Munich Security Conference 2026: Global leaders gather as transatlantic ties dominate talks | Euronewseuronews . Notably, "the US officially have reportedly signalled to their Russian counterparts that they would prefer to limit the involvement of hardliners like Medinsky"Live - Munich Security Conference 2026: Global leaders gather as transatlantic ties dominate talks | Euronewseuronews .
Senator Lindsey Graham, representing Republican voices that diverge from pure administration transactionalism, called for intensified Ukraine support: advocating "for Ukraine to receive Tomahawk missiles, more training for Ukrainian forces and longer-range systems capable of striking deeper into Russian territory"Lindsey Graham to allies: Get over Greenland - POLITICOpolitico . Graham insisted the president supports a bipartisan Russia sanctions package: "He's asked me, like, three times, where's the bill? He went from like, 'I don't know about this' to 'Yeah, that's good idea'"Lindsey Graham to allies: Get over Greenland - POLITICOpolitico .
The divergent American visions presented at Munich suggest several possible trajectories for multilateral institutional authority:
Institutional Bifurcation: The SAFE program model—explicitly excluding US participation in European defense procurement—may proliferate across policy domains. The EU is already "financing Ukraine via SAFE, a multilateral financing mechanism that has been launched recently as an alternative to the US-centric model"Europe's Defense Dilemmayoutube . As Europe reduces procurement from US suppliers (Germany down to 8%) while maintaining alliance membership, a two-tier institutional architecture may emerge.
Reform Under Pressure: The WTO Director-General's acknowledgment that "we need to reform many of the things with the world trading system"WTO Chief Calls for Reform of Global Trading Systemusnews suggests institutions may adapt to American demands rather than collapse. The US has secured $600 billion in EU investment commitments and $350 billion from South Korea through tariff negotiationsTrump’s Trade Representative: Why We Remade the Global Order | United States Trade Representativeustr .
Competing Multilateralisms: BRICS nations have called for "a comprehensive reform of the United Nations, including its Security Council, with a view to making it more democratic, representative, effective and efficient"XVI BRICS Summit : Kazan Declarationvoltairenet . Progressive American voices share some of these critiques, with scholars noting that progressives "criticize multilateral institutions for a system of global governance that underrepresents the voices of the Global South"To Build the World, Build the Strategy: Toward a Progressive US Foreign Policy • Stimson Centerstimson .
Sub-National Diplomacy: Governor Newsom's approach—formalizing California-Ukraine partnerships and positioning the state as a reliable climate partner—suggests American federalism may partially substitute for federal retrenchment. As Newsom articulated: "With the all-out assault we're now facing on low-carbon, green growth from the federal level, it's the sub-national leaders—those of us leading our states and cities—who have to step up"Eat, Pray, Govern: The Search for Meaning in Democratic Foreign Policy • Stimson Centerstimson .
The Munich conference's most enduring legacy may be accelerating European recognition that they must—in Wolfgang Ischinger's formulation, supported by the Munich Security Report—"stand up to the United States" and "take on board some of the techniques of the Trump's administration and be more daring in the way in which that it communicates its decisions"Munich security summit tests future of transatlantic relations • FRANCE 24 Englishyoutube . Former US Ambassador to NATO Daniel Fried offered a strategic prescription: "I understand the concern, but you can't throw up your hands and just recoil in horror. Instead…the path forward for Europe is not to complain, but to 'work the problem'"Rubio Heads To Munich Conference, Bratislava, And Budapest As Allies Look For Reassuranceglobalsecurity .
The conference revealed that transatlantic policy coordination now operates on multiple tracks simultaneously: official administration channels emphasizing burden-sharing and institutional reform through reduction; bipartisan congressional delegations maintaining traditional alliance commitments; progressive voices articulating alternative visions centered on climate security and democratic values; and sub-national actors positioning themselves as reliable partners regardless of federal policy. This multiplicity may paradoxically strengthen institutional resilience by diversifying American engagement points—or may accelerate fragmentation by undermining unified alliance positions. The answer likely depends on which American vision prevails in 2028 and whether European institutional innovations prove durable enough to survive the intervening uncertainty.