How could the large diaspora‑driven protests in Europe alter international diplomatic leverage over Tehran’s regime legitimacy and its external bargaining position?
The Iranian diaspora's mobilization across European capitals since 2022 has catalyzed a measurable shift in the European Union's diplomatic posture toward Tehran, producing both symbolic delegitimization and concrete policy changes that affect the regime's external bargaining position. This transformation operates through multiple interconnected mechanisms: formal institutional actions, economic pressure channels, and the regime's own resource-depleting counter-mobilization efforts.
Dynamic legitimation theory provides the conceptual foundation for understanding why diaspora protests matter to Tehran. Authoritarian leaders actively highlight international status recognition to enhance their regime's internal legitimacy, creating a feedback loop between external validation and domestic political stabilityFull article: Dynamic Legitimation Theory and Populist Authoritarian Leaders: The Rhetorical Framing of International Status for Domestic Legitimacytandfonline . Political legitimacy, defined as the "right to rule and make decisions" with which members of society "willingly comply," depends partly on external recognition that rulers can present domestically as validation of their authorityDynamic Legitimation Theory and Populist Authoritarian Leaderstandfonline .
Authoritarian regimes derive significant benefits from international legal imprimatur, including enhanced legitimacy, improved cooperation with like-minded states, and heightened ability to repress domestic oppositionHow Authoritarians Use International Law | Journal of Democracyjournalofdemocracy . Consequently, when European institutions publicly question Tehran's legitimacy, they disrupt this validation mechanism that the regime depends upon for domestic political messaging.
The international dimensions of authoritarian legitimation encompass both "defensive" strategies—presenting the regime as protector against external threats—and "expansive" strategies that seek positive international recognition[PDF] The International Dimensions of Authoritarian Legitimationgiga-hamburg . European delegitimization actions force Tehran to rely more heavily on defensive nationalism while undermining its capacity for expansive legitimation through normal diplomatic engagement.
The European Parliament's sustained pressure culminated in a decisive policy shift. All 27 EU member states aligned to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, overcoming years of internal disagreementThe European Union has designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ...instagram . EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced: "Repression cannot go unanswered. EU foreign ministers just took the decisive step of designating Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise"Tehran calls IRGC a ‘counterterror’ force as EU agrees on designation | Iran Internationaliranintl .
Germany's foreign minister Johann Wadephul characterized the designation as "long overdue," announcing that "the bloc stood side by side with the Iranian people" and that the Revolutionary Guard and its auxiliary forces had been "attacking protesters with extreme violence, carrying out executions, and playing a destabilising role across the Middle East"Tehran calls IRGC a ‘counterterror’ force as EU agrees on designation | Iran Internationaliranintl . The designation carries concrete legal consequences: frozen European assets, criminal liability for providing financial or material support, and travel bansThe European Union has designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ...instagram .
This represents a fundamental shift from earlier positions. France, Italy, and Spain had previously blocked the designation over diplomatic concerns and fears about repercussions for EU citizens in Iranian prisonsEU designates Iran Revolutionary Guard as terrorists | DW Newsyoutube . The reversal demonstrates how sustained diaspora pressure, combined with documented IRGC violence during protest crackdowns, altered the political calculus of previously reluctant member states.
The EU has adopted three distinct sanctions regimes against Iran: one addressing serious human rights violations (renewed annually, last extended until April 2026), one related to non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and a third responding to Iran's military support for Russia's war against Ukraine and armed groups in the Middle East and Red Sea region[PDF] Resolution on Brutal repression against protesters in Iran (22/01/2026)europa . Through these regimes, more than 230 individuals and 40 entities in Iran, including the IRGC, are currently under sanction[PDF] Resolution on Brutal repression against protesters in Iran (22/01/2026)europa .
The January 2026 sanctions package designated 15 Iranian officials and six entities accused of involvement in serious human rights violations linked to protest suppression, including Iran's interior minister Eskandar Momeni, senior IRGC commanders, police officials, and organizations involved in media regulation and internet censorshipThe European Union has designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ...instagram .
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola banned all Iranian diplomats from entering the European Parliament buildingIran under fire: Protests, Repression and the EU’s Responseyoutube . The Parliament's January 2026 resolution urged EU countries to "revoke the diplomatic status of the staff of Iran's embassies and consulates across the EU"Protests in Iran: call for EU action – answering citizens' concernsepthinktank . Green MEP Hannah Neumann articulated the emerging European consensus: "There can be no diplomatic normality with a regime that massacres its own people. Iranian ambassadors and regime representatives cannot claim legitimacy in Europe under these conditions"3 Questions on the Iran protests to MEP Hannah Neumannboell .
Following the IRGC designation, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned ambassadors from approximately 20 EU member states with embassies in Tehran to formally convey Tehran's protestEuropean Ambassadors Summoned to Iran's Foreign Ministry ...wanaen . Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission called on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to expel military attachés from EU member statesEuropean Ambassadors Summoned to Iran's Foreign Ministry ...wanaen . The hardline Kayhan newspaper, overseen by Supreme Leader Khamenei's representative, called for expelling EU ambassadors entirely, acknowledging this "would amount to cutting diplomatic relations with Europe"Kayhan urges expulsion of EU ambassadors after Guards decisioniranintl .
The Iranian diaspora in Europe became politically active following the 2022 protests, putting sustained pressure on European politicians to act against the clerical regimeEU Imposes New Sanctions On IRGC Short Of Terrorist Designation | Iran Internationaliranintl . The IRGC terrorist designation became a rallying point, with diaspora activists launching online campaigns and holding large protests in Strasbourg on January 16 to lobby the European ParliamentEuropean Lawmakers Meet To Further Discuss IRGC Designationiranintl . European Parliament President Metsola acknowledged this grassroots pressure, stating she was "Proud of the European Parliament's sustained, unified effort that helped push this breakthrough"Tehran calls IRGC a ‘counterterror’ force as EU agrees on designation | Iran Internationaliranintl .
The Parliament's resolution explicitly "extends its full solidarity to the Iranian diaspora, which plays a crucial role in demanding freedom and democracy and supporting the protests" and "recognises the Iranian people as the sole legitimate source of authority and sovereignty in Iran"Protests in Iran: call for EU action – answering citizens' concernsepthinktank . This language directly challenges Tehran's claim to legitimate authority.
Prominent diaspora figures and human rights advocates published coordinated advocacy efforts. A joint op-ed in Politico Europe by actress Nazanin Boniadi, Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, journalist Nazanin Ansari, and human rights advocate Ladan Boroumand outlined "six obligations Europe should act under international law," pressuring France and Spain as "the only EU states blocking" IRGC designationNazanin Boniadi - Iranians are paying with their lives.... | Facebookfacebook .
The Iranian diaspora's influence must be contextualized against other diaspora movements. The Cuban exile community offers the most studied example of diaspora political mobilization, having shaped—some would say dictated—U.S. Cuba policy for decadesExiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime change – but diasporas don’t always reflect the politics back hometheconversation . However, this influence is easily overstated: by 2014, polls showed 52% of Cuban Americans opposed the embargo their lobby had championed, and influence waned after founder Jorge Mas Canosa's death in 1997Exiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime change – but diasporas don’t always reflect the politics back hometheconversation .
Critical lessons emerge from comparative analysis. Diasporas are not uniform because constituent populations did not arrive simultaneously, from the same places, or for the same reasons—each migration wave carries distinct political orientations shaped by departure circumstancesIRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia . The Turkish diaspora in Europe demonstrates how diasporas can become "politically frozen at the moment of departure," a pattern visible across contextsIRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia .
For Iran, these lessons counsel measured expectations: "The loudest voices may reflect narrow slices of diverse communities. Authoritarian states insulate themselves while using emigration as a safety valve. Diasporas can aid democratic change, but those who remain will ultimately decide it. They can amplify struggles at home, but they can't replace them".
The regime's extensive counter-mobilization efforts reveal how seriously it perceives diaspora influence as threatening its legitimacy and international position.
The Iranian government escalated its global transnational repression campaign when 2022 anti-regime protests mobilized diaspora communities worldwideIrancitizenlab . Journalists working for prominent Persian-language media stations—BBC Persian, Iran International, DW Persian, Radio Zamaneh—came under particular pressure for their protest coverageIrancitizenlab .
British law enforcement reported more than a dozen credible threats linked to the Iranian regime to kill or kidnap individuals on UK territoryIrancitizenlab . In March 2024, Pouria Zeraati, a presenter for Iran International, was stabbed outside his home in London, forcing the channel to relocate headquarters from London to Washington, D.C.Irancitizenlab .
A July 2025 joint statement by the US, UK, and twelve European countries condemned Iran's escalating extraterritorial operations, specifically highlighting the regime's efforts to outsource violence to Western organized crime networks "to target journalists, dissidents, Jewish citizens, and current and former officials in Europe and North America"US, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal . Tehran has increasingly recruited criminal syndicates across Europe and the Americas, from the designated Foxtrot gang in Sweden to the Hells Angels in Germany and CanadaUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal .
Within Freedom House's dataset, 47 incidents of transnational repression have been recorded with Iran as the origin state since 2014, tying Iran with Uzbekistan as eighth among the most frequent global perpetrators[PDF] Perpetrators and methods of transnational repression and ...europa . Of these 47 incidents, 14 occurred in the EU and another 25 in non-EU Council of Europe countries, mostly in Turkey[PDF] Perpetrators and methods of transnational repression and ...europa .
The UK Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee cited over a dozen IRGC and Ministry of Intelligence plots to assassinate or abduct UK citizens and residents from January 2022 to August 2023, identifying the Islamic Republic as a major threat to national securityUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal .
The regime deploys extensive digital repression tools against the diaspora. For more than a decade, threat actors affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security agencies have engaged in phishing campaigns against activists abroad to gain access to accounts, confidential information, and contactsIrancitizenlab . These campaigns rely on sophisticated social engineering using information gathered through online monitoring and surveillance.
To limit external Iranian news media outreach, websites have been taken offline by defacements and distributed denial-of-service attacksIrancitizenlab . Other operations copy the design and layout of prominent news sites to mock content and spread rumors about staff membersIrancitizenlab . News websites and regime-affiliated media often replicate and amplify defamation and disinformation directed against diaspora members, including framing dissidents as regime affiliates to expose them to attacks from hardline opposition groupsIrancitizenlab .
On July 30, 2025, the Iranian parliament passed the "Support for Iranians Abroad" bill—legislation mandating creation of a state-run database on Iranian expatriatesUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal . Under Article 5, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must compile a comprehensive "information bank" of citizens living outside the country, with annual reporting requirements to the parliamentary National Security CommissionUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal .
German authorities banned the Islamic Center Hamburg in 2024 after concluding it functioned as an extension of the Iranian regime and served as a conduit for Hezbollah-linked activitiesUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal . The German Interior Ministry accused the IZH of promoting Islamist extremism and advancing anti-constitutional aims, including militant propagation of Iranian revolutionary ideology and aggressive antisemitismUS, UK, EU allies condemn Iranian terror plotslongwarjournal .
European Parliament resolutions note that "credible evidence indicates that Iranian diplomatic missions in several Member States have been involved in propaganda, disinformation and intimidation targeting Iranian diaspora communities in Europe, in breach of international law and the principles governing diplomatic relations"[PDF] Resolution on Brutal repression against protesters in Iran (22/01/2026)europa .
The E3 (Britain, France, Germany) invented Iran nuclear diplomacy in 2003 when the Bush Administration maintained a policy of no acknowledged diplomatic contacts with IranEurope and the Iran Nuclear Dealyoutube . The nuclear agreement's "snapback" mechanism—allowing parties to reimpose UN sanctions without facing a Russian or Chinese veto—represents the E3's primary leverage instrumentSnap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations – European Council on Foreign Relationsecfr .
Under the 2015 nuclear accord, "sunset" clauses meant certain restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme would expire over time. After October 2025, the Iran nuclear file would effectively be removed from the UN Security Council's agendaSnap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations – European Council on Foreign Relationsecfr . This creates time pressure for the E3 to either use or extend the snapback mechanism.
European officials have outlined two main goals for triggering snapback: defending the NPT by holding Iran accountable for violating the nuclear deal and IAEA safeguards, and using increased international pressure to push Iran toward concessionsSnap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations – European Council on Foreign Relationsecfr . However, analysts note that twenty years of US-Iran diplomacy have illuminated three key trends: Iran responds to pressure with counter-escalation; Iran will not surrender its right to enrichment; and Iran will only make significant concessions through face-saving diplomacySnap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations – European Council on Foreign Relationsecfr .
Iranian authorities have strongly rejected snapback as illegitimate and politically motivated, arguing the JCPOA has been effectively defunct since the US withdrawal in 2018 and that European powers failed to uphold commitments to protect Iran's economic interestsIran and the Nuclear Deal What ‘The Ball Is in Tehran’s Court’ Really Meansyoutube . The Iranian parliament has vowed a "decisive and reciprocal response" to what it calls illegal sanction imposition, highlighting unified opposition among lawmakers and national security bodiesIran and the Nuclear Deal What ‘The Ball Is in Tehran’s Court’ Really Meansyoutube .
Some Iranian officials have characterized snapback as "more psychological than substantive," partly to prevent domestic panic while processing economic risks and maintaining social stabilityIran and the Nuclear Deal What ‘The Ball Is in Tehran’s Court’ Really Meansyoutube . Supreme Leader Khamenei has reiterated that uranium enrichment will not be abandoned, describing talks with the United States as a "dead end"Iran and the Nuclear Deal What ‘The Ball Is in Tehran’s Court’ Really Meansyoutube .
Iran's foreign ministry has responded to European pressure by characterizing EU states as being "in no position to impose themselves on diplomatic processes unless they stop choosing a destructive role which would benefit no one"Iran prioritises nuclear dialogue, rejects widening US negotiations: Analysisyoutube . Officials argue European countries "miss past opportunity to play a constructive role and fail to act independently or positively in diplomatic processes. Instead choosing to follow others and making serious miscalculations. Their recent decision to designate part of Iran's armed forces with both illegal and a strategic mistake"Iran prioritises nuclear dialogue, rejects widening US negotiations: Analysisyoutube .
Trade between Iran and the 27-member European Union reached €3.102 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, with EU exports to Iran totaling €2.452 billion and imports from Iran at €650 millionIran–EU trade reaches €3.1b in 10 monthsotaghiranonline . Germany remains Iran's largest European trading partner, accounting for 31% of total Iran-EU trade, with bilateral trade reaching €984 million in the 10-month periodIran–EU trade reaches €3.1b in 10 monthsotaghiranonline .
However, these figures reflect severe decline from pre-sanctions levels. EU assessments note that "EU's trade and investments in Iran are significantly below the potential considering the size of the two markets" and that "in the context of the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions related to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, the subsequent absence of payment and banking channels and the risk... the volume of trade declined by more than 70% in 2019 and the situation did not change significantly in 2020"[PDF] ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN Multi-annual Indicative Programme ...europa .
Iran's exports to the EU are largely limited to agricultural products, food items, carpets, and a small volume of industrial goods, reflecting ongoing barriers to energy exports and broader trade integrationIran–EU trade reaches €3.1b in 10 monthsotaghiranonline . The absence of an EU Delegation in Tehran "significantly affects the EU-Iran cooperation and makes effective implementation, including monitoring of EU support, more difficult"[PDF] ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN Multi-annual Indicative Programme ...europa .
German Chancellor declared that "the regime has lost all legitimacy. If a regime can only keep itself in power by force, then it's effectively at an end. I believe we are now seeing the final days and weeks of this regime. It has in any case no legitimacy through democratic elections"MEP calls for tougher stance from EU toward Iranian regime | DW Newsyoutube . European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated: "'Terrorist' is indeed how you call a regime that crushes its own people's protests in blood. Europe stands with the people of Iran in their brave fight for freedom"Tehran calls IRGC a ‘counterterror’ force as EU agrees on designation | Iran Internationaliranintl .
The European Parliament's resolution "recognises the Iranian people as the sole legitimate source of authority and sovereignty in Iran"Protests in Iran: call for EU action – answering citizens' concernsepthinktank —language that directly repudiates the theocratic regime's claim to rule. This categorical rejection of regime legitimacy, codified in formal EU institutional documents, represents a significant departure from previous diplomatic ambiguity.
The Women Life Freedom movement of 2022 represented a qualitative break, articulating an explicitly emancipatory rejection of gendered domination, compulsory veiling, and everyday authoritarian regulationIran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire . While it did not coalesce into a unified political programme, it fundamentally altered the political landscape by normalizing open defiance of the state's moral and disciplinary authorityIran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire .
The state responded with overwhelming force, frequently deploying lethal violence against unarmed protesters and treating unrest as an extension of external confrontationIran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire . This points to "a deepening crisis of consent and acquiescence and a political system increasingly reliant on extreme levels of violence and effectively at war with a sizeable cross section of its own population"Iran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire .
The regime's propaganda framing is revealing: protest is routinely cast through the lens of national security and external subversion, allowing collapse of social grievance into foreign conspiracyIran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire . This framing does not explain protest origins, which are overwhelmingly domestic, but it helps explain the scale and speed of repressionIran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire . The European Parliament "categorically rejects the Iranian authorities' claims that the protests were instigated by foreign agents"[PDF] Resolution on Brutal repression against protesters in Iran (22/01/2026)europa .
Important caveats apply to diaspora political influence. Iranian and Venezuelan émigrés might broadly oppose their current governments—having left them, this is unsurprising—but "they are far from unified on what should replace those governments, who should lead or how change should come about"Exiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime changelmtonline .
Research finds that remittances and family communication "mostly reinforce existing, mutual partisan sympathies rather than swing votes"Exiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime changelmtonline . An El Salvador official's claim that "one supporter in Washington equals five votes at home" appears exaggerated—remittances reinforce existing partisan ties rather than change votes, though "belief in diaspora power matters"IRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia .
Monarchist currents associated with Reza Pahlavi are rooted in "a politics of nostalgia, recrudescent authoritarianism, social hierarchy, and alignment with imperial power"Iran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire . In the diaspora, the Iranian left faces distortions: "Media and funding structures often amplify authoritarian or externally aligned figures while marginalising labour-centred and feminist perspectives with deep roots inside Iran. This creates a disconnect between external representations of opposition politics and the lived realities of struggle on the ground"Iran: the persistence of unrest and the threat of intervention | Counterfirecounterfire .
Some research finds remittances can weaken dictatorships by sustaining opposition activity, but authoritarian states have built countermeasuresIRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia . Studies of Arab diaspora activism show regimes using transnational repression to deter dissent—Freedom House recorded more than 1,200 incidents of physical transnational repression, including assassinations, abductions, assaults, and unlawful deportations, by 48 governments between 2014 and 2024IRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia .
Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled in the Western Hemisphere's largest displacement crisis, while Iranian emigration surged after the 2022 protestsIRANIANS, VENEZUELANS OVERSEAS FAVOR CHANGE - First Indiafirstindia . Both diasporas include activists, donors, and would-be leaders positioning for future rule. But "passion does not equal unity, and visibility doesn't equal representation".
The diaspora-driven European pressure campaign has produced measurable effects on Tehran's international standing and bargaining capacity across multiple dimensions:
Formal institutional delegitimization: The EU's recognition of "the Iranian people as the sole legitimate source of authority" and explicit rejection of regime claims that protests were foreign-instigated directly challenges Tehran's narrative framework for domestic and international audiences.
Concrete security designations: The IRGC terrorist designation by all 27 EU member states creates legal consequences—asset freezes, travel bans, criminal liability for support—that constrain the organization's European operations and financial networks.
Diplomatic isolation: Banning Iranian diplomats from European Parliament premises, summoning ambassadors, and calls to revoke diplomatic status signal degraded bilateral relationships that limit Tehran's normal diplomatic channels.
Resource depletion through counter-mobilization: Tehran's extensive transnational repression operations, digital warfare against diaspora media, and institutional counter-measures represent significant resource expenditure that reveals regime perception of diaspora influence as a genuine threat.
Nuclear negotiations context: While European leverage through snapback mechanisms operates somewhat independently of diaspora pressure, the hardened political environment makes diplomatic normalization more difficult and narrows Tehran's options for face-saving compromises.
However, structural limitations apply. Trade flows, while diminished, continue at meaningful levels. The regime has demonstrated resilience through brutal domestic repression. Diaspora communities remain internally divided. And ultimately, as comparative analysis suggests, "Diasporas can aid democratic change, but those who remain will ultimately decide it. They can amplify struggles at home, but they can't replace them".
The diaspora's most significant contribution may be sustaining international attention and political pressure during periods when internal protest capacity is suppressed—functioning as an external accountability mechanism that prevents complete diplomatic normalization and maintains reputational costs for regime violence.