How could Trump's threat to block the Gordie Howe bridge influence the strategic calculus of NAFTA renegotiations and reshape North American supply‑chain resilience?
President Trump's February 9, 2026 threat to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge represents a calculated deployment of infrastructure leverage at a critical juncture in North American trade relations. With the mandatory USMCA six-year review scheduled for July 1, 2026, the bridge threat functions as a pressure mechanism designed to extract concessions from Canada across multiple dimensions—from trade policy alignment to ownership stakes in binational infrastructureTrump Threatens to Block Opening of New Bridge to Canada - The New York Timesnytimes +1.
The Gordie Howe International Bridge occupies a unique position in North American commerce. The Windsor-Detroit corridor is the busiest trade corridor in North America, handling almost 30 percent of all Canada-US trade transported by truck[PDF] Gordie Howe International Bridge (United-States – Canada)gihub . The corridor handles approximately $390 million in trade daily, representing 26% of Canada's exports moved by road and 33% of its importsFebruary 14, 2022 Declaration of Public Order Emergency – The Emergencies Act: Special Joint Committee on the Declaration of Emergency – Appearance Binderjustice +1.
Trump's threat directly targets a $4.7 billion infrastructure project financed entirely by Canada, which was designed to provide redundancy and modern capacity alongside the aging, privately-owned Ambassador BridgeTrump threatens to block opening of Detroit-Canada bridge | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera +1. In his Truth Social post, Trump demanded that "the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them" and suggested the US should own "at least one half of this asset"Trump Threatens to Block Bridge Between U.S. and Canada | TIMEtime +1.
The timing is not coincidental. The threat emerged as US-Canada relations deteriorate ahead of the USMCA reviewTrump says he’ll block Gordie Howe Bridge from Michigan to Canada | CNN Politicscnn . Trump explicitly linked his grievances to broader trade issues, including Canada's tariffs on US dairy products, provincial restrictions on US alcohol sales, and Canada's recent trade deal with ChinaTrump says Gordie Howe bridge won't open without Canadian concessionsfreep .
The threat cannot be fully understood without examining the role of the Moroun family, which privately owns the Ambassador Bridge. Matthew Moroun, son of the late Manuel Moroun who purchased the bridge in 1979, has mounted decades of legal challenges to block or delay the Gordie Howe project, including cases reaching Canada's Supreme CourtCanada Built a New Bridge and Here’s Why That’s Irritating Trump - The New York Timesnytimes .
Federal campaign finance disclosures reveal significant political contributions from Matthew Moroun:
The Moroun family's Detroit International Bridge Co. previously pressed Trump to revoke the permit during his first term, arguing they would lose out in competition with the publicly financed bridgeTrump wants to amend key Gordie Howe Bridge permit for a cut of the toll revenuedetroitnews . Former US Senator Debbie Stabenow explicitly identified the family's influence: "Every step of the way, they've done everything they could to block the bridge because it competes with them... This is where it raises so many questions about a privately owned international asset, where they are more concerned about competition for customers across the bridge than they are Michigan's economy and our national security"Trump wants to amend key Gordie Howe Bridge permit for a cut of the toll revenuedetroitnews .
The threat's credibility depends on what legal tools Trump could deploy. The presidential permit authorizing construction and operation of the bridge was issued in 2013, but as with any executive order, can be revoked by the presidentTrump threatens to block opening of new bridge between Windsor and Detroit | CBC Newscbc . Additionally, under 19 U.S.C. § 1318(b)(2), the Commissioner of US Customs and Border Protection is authorized to "close temporarily any Customs office or port of entry" when necessary to respond to a "specific threat to human life or national interests"Can the President “Close the Border”? Relevant Laws and Considerations | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress .
Trump has frequently invoked emergency statutes for events and circumstances considered routine to access expanded authorityTrump Threatens to Block Opening of New Bridge to Canada - The New York Timesnytimes . While it remains unclear precisely how Trump would block the bridge's opening, the White House has demanded Canada "share authority" and ownership following a call between Trump and Prime Minister Mark CarneyTrump threatens to block opening of US-Canada bridgebbc .
The USMCA is designed to last 16 years, expiring on July 1, 2036, unless the parties agree to extend it. Article 34.7 requires the three governments to conduct a formal review at the six-year markUSMCA Review 2026 - CSIScsis . If a party does not agree to extend the USMCA, the agreement requires additional annual joint reviews until all parties agree to extension or the agreement terminatesUSMCA Joint Review: Process and Role of Congress | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress .
The Trump administration has signaled it may prefer bilateral negotiations over the trilateral framework. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late last year that negotiations during the USMCA review process would "probably" be more bilateral than trilateralUS and Mexico agree to begin formal 2026 USMCA review talksmexiconewsdaily . The administration has expressed dissatisfaction with the deal Trump himself negotiated, with the president recently stating "I don't really care about it"Carney Refused America's Trade Demands | And Changed Everything!youtube .
Key pressure points expected to dominate the USMCA agenda include:
The bridge threat directly connects to Trump's stated grievance about Canada's relationship with China. Trump specifically cited Prime Minister Carney's deal with China allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market with a 6.1% tariff rate—down from the 100% tariff Canada had previously imposed in tandem with the USTrump says Gordie Howe bridge won't open without Canadian concessionsfreep +1.
The strategic significance of the Windsor-Detroit corridor was demonstrated during the February 2022 Ambassador Bridge blockade, when protesters shut down the crossing for approximately one week. The economic consequences were severe:
Transport Canada estimated the cost to the Canadian economy of a full shutdown of the bridge would range from significant daily losses in the first week, potentially reaching extreme levels if the situation dragged on and other crossings became inaccessible16. Economic impact of the blockades - Transports Canadacanada . The total economic impact of the 2022 blockade has been estimated at $3 billion to $6 billionCanada convoy protest - Wikipediawikipedia .
The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable due to just-in-time manufacturing practices. Between 5,000 and 7,000 trucks use the Ambassador Bridge daily to deliver automotive parts, and the bridge is responsible for 27% of all Canada-US tradeUS-Canada bridge blockade risks huge economic damage, governments warn | Canada | The Guardiantheguardian . Auto parts and partially built cars can cross the borders seven or eight times before an automobile is completedUSMCA Review Poses Stress Test for North American Supply Chains | SupplyChainBrainsupplychainbrain .
The Gordie Howe Bridge was conceived precisely to address single-point-of-failure risk in the trade corridor. A 2004 economic impact assessment found that by 2020, increased congestion and delay at existing crossings would cost the US more than $2.2 billion and Canada more than CAD $300 million per year in lost production and output, with impacts rising exponentially to $11.4 billion per year to the US and CAD $2.1 billion per year by 2030[PDF] Gordie Howe International Bridge (United-States – Canada)gihub .
The new bridge provides critical advantages:
According to a University of Windsor study, the Gordie Howe Bridge could cut up to 20 minutes off crossing times, saving truckers an estimated $2.3 billion over 30 yearsTrump threatens to block opening of Detroit-Canada bridge | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera . Professor Peter Frise of the University of Windsor emphasized that "this improvement to the border infrastructure, this increase in efficiency, increase in capacity and increase in speed is a very, very important factor in helping Canada compete with other regions for business"Faster crossings at the Canada–U.S. border via new bridge could ease supply chain pressures: WDBA | CBC Newscbc .
Prime Minister Mark Carney has pursued a fundamentally different approach to Canada-US relations, one premised on strategic diversification rather than deeper integration. In his Davos speech, Carney articulated that "great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited"Carney says the old world order 'is not coming back' in Davos speechbbc .
Carney's China deal represents a direct challenge to US expectations of allied alignment. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market with a 6.1% tariff rate, with quotas potentially rising to 70,000 over five years. In exchange, China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from 84% to approximately 15% by March 1, 2026Prime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade | Prime Minister of Canadapm +1.
Carney has framed this reorientation in stark terms: "We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be"Canada's deal with China signals it is serious about shift from USbbc . He noted that Canada's relationship with China had become "more predictable" than its relationship with the US under the Trump administrationCanada's deal with China signals it is serious about shift from USbbc .
The Canadian government has pursued comprehensive trade diversification policies:
Canada has also developed retaliatory capabilities, including reciprocal tariffs, potential restrictions on energy exports (the US imports more crude oil from Canada than any other country), electricity leverage (Canada supplies massive amounts of hydroelectric power to US states), and control over critical minerals including nickel, cobalt, lithium, uranium, and potashEconomic Deterrence: Canada’s Flexible Response to U.S. Economic Coercion - RAUSIrausi .
Mexico's response has been characterized by quiet diplomacy rather than confrontation. President Claudia Sheinbaum opted for de-escalation through swift diplomatic engagement and increased enforcement actions on migration and narcotics, leading to the creation of a permanent US-Mexico working group on security, migration, border management, water, and economic tiesUSMCA Review 2026 - CSIScsis .
The USTR announced that the US and Mexico agreed to "begin formal discussions on possible structural and strategic reforms in the context of the first USMCA Joint Review, including stronger rules of origin for key industrial goods, enhanced collaboration on critical minerals, and increased external trade policy alignment"US and Mexico agree to begin formal 2026 USMCA review talksmexiconewsdaily . Notably, the USTR statement did not specify whether Canada would be involved in these talks.
The Canadian and Mexican governments are expected to continue consulting one another formally or informally on strategies for issues of common interest, such as US tariffs on automobiles and auto partsStrategic Priorities for the 2026 USMCA Review - Baker Institutebakerinstitute . However, Mexico's approach of concession-making to avoid escalation creates potential divergence from Canada's more assertive posture.
The automotive industry and regional officials have responded with alarm to Trump's threat. Sandy Baruah, president of the Detroit Regional Chamber, called the bridge "the most consequential infrastructure project in the state and region of this generation," warning that "any effort to block this project would have tremendous consequences for the region, state, and country"Trump Threatens To Block Bridge, Affecting MI Car Industrygmauthority .
Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin warned that cancellation would mean "higher costs for Michigan businesses, less secure supply chains and ultimately, fewer jobs"Trump Threatens To Block Bridge, Affecting MI Car Industrygmauthority . Governor Gretchen Whitmer's office struck a defiant tone, stating the bridge "was built with union labor on both sides of the border and will strengthen Michigan's auto industry and manufacturing base," adding "It's going to open one way or another"Trump Threatens to Block Opening of Gordie Howe Bridge | Engineering News-Recordenr .
Ontario Premier Doug Ford disputed Trump's claims about American content, stating US steel made up 25 percent of the construction and declaring "This is not the time to roll over and let President Trump take advantage of us"Canada Built a New Bridge and Here’s Why That’s Irritating Trump - The New York Timesnytimes .
The bridge threat reshapes the USMCA negotiating landscape in several dimensions:
Trump's threat demonstrates willingness to weaponize infrastructure approvals—an escalation beyond tariffs. This creates uncertainty about the reliability of any negotiated agreement, as infrastructure projects with decades-long time horizons become subject to political leverage.
The threat damages American reliability as a trading partner. As trade adviser Eric Miller observed, "The prime minister is saying, essentially, that Canada has agency too, and that it's not going to just sit and wait for the United States... There's a reasonable chance that we could end up in 2026 without a meaningful, workable trade deal with the United States"Canada's deal with China signals it is serious about shift from USbbc .
Corporations must now factor political risk into cross-border supply chain decisions. The threat to block a completed infrastructure project designed specifically for supply chain resilience undermines the rationale for investing in North American manufacturing integration.
Trump's preference for bilateral deals, combined with Mexico's accommodationist approach, potentially isolates Canada. However, Canada's strategic diversification—including the China deal—signals it will not accept subordination as the price of market access.
If the USMCA is not extended in 2026, annual reviews will occur until the initial expiration date in 2036The Review of the USMCA 2026 and the Future of Trade Relations in North America – Inter-American Dialoguethedialogue . This creates prolonged uncertainty that will influence corporate investment decisions throughout North America.
The bridge threat, combined with broader tariff wars, is accelerating a fundamental reconsideration of North American supply chain architecture. Research indicates a 10-minute reduction in border wait times could generate an additional $26 million worth of cargo entering the United States each month via commercial vehicles—more than $312 million in additional commerce annuallyThe economic impact of a more efficient US-Mexico border: How reducing wait times at land ports of entry would promote commerce, resilience, and job creation - Atlantic Councilatlanticcouncil . Conversely, border delays at the US-Mexico border have been estimated to cost $3.4 billion in economic output and more than 88,000 jobs[PDF] IMPACTS OF BORDER DELAYS AT CALIFORNIA–BAJA ... - SANDAGsandag .
The border economy has shifted from "just in time" to "just in case," with more goods stored on the US side as cross-border supply chains adapt to uncertaintyThe US-Mexico Border Boom - Prodensaprodensa . This shift increases costs throughout the manufacturing ecosystem while reducing the efficiency gains that motivated continental integration.
The Gordie Howe Bridge threat thus represents not merely a bilateral dispute but a fundamental challenge to the premise of North American supply chain integration. For automakers whose components cross borders seven or eight times before final assemblyUSMCA Review Poses Stress Test for North American Supply Chains | SupplyChainBrainsupplychainbrain , political risk now compounds the operational risks that the bridge was designed to mitigate.
The strategic calculus for corporate decision-makers has shifted: geographic proximity and historic integration no longer guarantee stable market access. As Prime Minister Carney articulated at Davos, "You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration, when integration becomes the source of your subordination"Carney’s Remarkable Message to Middle Powers | Carnegie Endowment for International Peacecarnegieendowment . The bridge threat crystallizes this reality, forcing both governments and corporations to reconsider assumptions that have underpinned North American manufacturing for six decades.